The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Read the latest crop reports from the fields across America! Also, submit your own comments.
Here's a sampling of what some folks are saying:
-- Pam Smith, Farm Journal Seeds & Production Editor
(Have any photos of the crops on your farm? Send them to AgWeb and have them posted on Crop Comments! Be sure to include a caption.)
-- Del Voight, Penn State
Crop Management Extension Group
-- Lafayette County, Wis.
Here is some encouragement for those watching the markets going down. Based on an amusing and unusual theory I have, the top of the market for 2009 is yet to be made! I have been farming for 37 years, and it seems to me every time I heard the phrases "downside risk is limited" and "beans going to $20" (in the old days the phrase was "beans in the teens"), that this was a signal the market top was almost in. If I had sold out my grain every time I heard these phrases, my banker's phone number would probably not be in speed-dial. I know this smells like "contrarian theory," but after over 3-1/2 decades of observing 100% of the experts convinced that the market is going one way, [I'm convinced] this is a signal that the top (or the bottom) is in. Has anyone else observed this? So far this year, I have not heard the phrase "downside risk is limited," which in a tongue-in-cheek way indicates to me that the marketing top for at least corn for 2009 has not yet been made. Take this for what it is worth. :)
Personal production estimates at this time: Soybean yields down 15% to 20%, corn yields down 10% to 15% due to late planting, although late-season rains, warm temps for the next 5-6 weeks and an average frost date (October 10 for us) would improve the estimates.
Hope everyone has a safe harvest. Be mindful when you need rest, and take breaks. A harvest that takes an extra 24 hours to complete will not make that much difference in the grand scheme of things, but getting an extra hour of sleep each night for 24 nights could make a huge difference. Take it from an older farmer -- "it ain't worth it" to give 110% if it costs you 150%. Yes, we want to complete the harvest as timely as we can, yet we also want to be here and healthy to enjoy the friuts of our labor. Take care of yourselves now and this fall.
-- Central Illinois
-- South of Decatur, Illinois
-- Lafayette County, Southwest Wisconsin
Peanuts continued to do well, drought or no drought, as most of the crop is under irrigation in Texas, according to Dr. Todd Baughman, Texas AgriLife Extension Service agronomist.
-- Texas AgriLife Extension Service
It would seem that the prospects are good for an average to above average harvest. I believe our stress from June 20 to July 20 had to loose some yield potential on the corn, especially the weaker and thinner soils. County average is 167 and that looks achievable for me. Average bean yield here is 47 bushels and that looks achievable as well if we have the moisture and heat to finish well. It does not look like it will be an early harvest. I personally am thankful to have a sealed silo available to me for the first time to get 35% of my corn out at 28 - 30% moisture.
-- Atchison County, Kansas
-- Nueces County, Texas
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