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November 2013 Archive for Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Hope for a Holiday Turnaround....

Nov 29, 2013

I realize supplies are getting larger and longer-term price patterns continue to point to lower levels, but here in the next couple of months I am thinking lack of farmer selling coupled with strong global and domestic demand should produce some type of small pop to the upside.  We have seen ethanol production inch up over the past month with the latest weekly usage at 927,000 barrels.  Along with this, ethanol stocks are at historical lows.  Wiil we see less second crop corn acres go into South America?  This morning the export numbers for corn again were above the trades expectations, at 1,007,000 metric tons.  If we can mount an extended corn demand picture, coupled with any type of supply side glitch globally, hopefully we can can push these markets higher into the new year.  Click here to get all my market comments....  

Soybeans Remain the Story !

Nov 27, 2013

Soybeans remain the story! At least the nearby contracts, especially, DEC13 Meal which made a massive push yesterday to close back above levels not seen since mid-Sept (essentially a NEW contract high).  As you know, I have been a big proponent of bull-spreading the front end of the meal market and the past several sessions have paid off handsomely. I made some adjustments yesterday as we scaled back our exposure on the rally, but I still believe there could be more upside potential as supplies remain insanely tight as not only are exports strong but domestic end users still need coverage in Dec and Jan. I should point out there are starting to be some whispers about potential deliveries in meal in light of the explosive move higher, if your in the DEC13 contract don't forget Friday is "First Notice Day." Also keep in mind the bull-spreads rallied despite the USDA announcing a cancelation of 300,000 metric tons of soybeans to China. Remember, the part of the equation that is difficult to solve right now is the nearby front-loaded demand. The market has very little concern or fear of fulfilling the deferred sales. Thats why I continue to stress the importance of scaling back risk exposure on each and every rally... we just don't know when the nearby equation is going to be solved and the market is going to stop worrying about tight supplies. As far as 2014/15 prices are concerned, there continues to be very little in the way of bullish headlines. A few bulls are trying to stoke the flames by talking about the severity of "corn ear worms" in Brazil, but I am just not confirming any reduction to yields or overall production.  Yes, producers are having to spray more aggressively but they seem to have the problem under control, at least for the time being. Bottom-line, several good sources continue to believe a NEW record 90 million metric ton plus soybean crop out of Brazil is well within the realm of possibilities, especially with the good rainfall amounts they have been seeing. Keep in mind the USDA already has them penciled in at 88 million tons compared to the 82 million they produced this past year.  

Marketing Your Soybeans: In a nutshell I still think there is some more upside potential for the bushels we just harvested. We made another cash sale overnight, making this three in the past week. I am not suggesting producers get greedy, as I have been a huge proponent of scaled up selling the past few months. And understand I am certainly not willing to bet any more than 10-15% of my overall production on the hunch this thing goes higher, so either make catch up sales or get some hedges in place on the reming portion. I just think during the next 30-45 days .... Click here for all my daily comments...

Beans to Remain Strong all Week....

Nov 25, 2013

Soybeans have added over $0.50 cents to last weeks lows and the market is questioning whether it has enough strength to continue to push further up the price mountain? Most of the bullish fuel is obviously coming from the strong Chinese demand story. With extremely large export sales being reported as of late, most in the trade are thinking the USDA will be forced to increase overall export estimates by another 50-100 million bushels in the December report. There are also rumors circulating that Brazil is no longer offering soybeans for Feb.

On the flip side the bears continue pointing to more longer-term obstacles such as a NEW record South American crop going in the ground, near ideal growing conditions up to this point, and another record US soybean crop going in the ground next season. The only thing really new that I have heard form the bearish camp are rumors that the Chinese Government could be preparing for additional state reserve auctions. To me this only shows demand is extremely strong in China and the government wants to do everything in their power to keep prices from racing higher. 

From a technical and historical perspective there is some reason to be excited. Several times in previous years we have seen bean prices rally into Thanksgiving. You will even hear some seasoned veterans of the trade tell you, "The bulls generally feast on Thanksgiving and the bears on Christmas." I am still not ruling out a possible run to $13.50 or perhaps even a shot at filling the technical gap on the charts located in the $13.70's. We may have to ram the front door a few more times before we can break through the heavy resistance but I believe supplies are simply too tight for prices not to move higher, at least short-term, on this type of heavy demand.                   Click Here for my daily grain comments...

Today's Corn..not just about price but profitability....

Nov 22, 2013

Corn traders will be closely monitoring the DEC13 options which expire today. Its anyones guess on where we close this afternoon... will the trade make a run for the $4.10 strike or will be it the $4.20's??? Cash corn remains strong, we continue to hear talk of record basis bids at the Gulf and are starting to finally hear talk of the basis popping a bit out in the Eastern Corn Belt regions. If you are still holding old crop bushels make sure you are diligently checking your basis, I am just afraid some areas could see extreme movement that is "here today gone tomorrow..."  

Like I said a few days ago, the growing season in South America is very long and there can be several issues along the way. My hopes are we can get the right combination of a bullish weather headline out of South America along with a bullish pop in the basis here at home. Hopefully, the combination of the two can help us capture a couple of respectable cash sales prior to year end. I am starting to hear some whispers that isolated areas of Uruguay, Argentina and parts of Brazil have become extremely wet. Don't get me wrong, rains in South America are very common this time of year but with the corn planting behind we could see some emergent issues on the later planted corn. Some farmers are even having to re-seed certain areas and may be forced to switch more acres to soy. Producers still holding risk on old crop bushels should remain patient but be ready to reduce a little each time we see a 10-20 cent rally. Remember it's not just about "price" but rather about "profitability" and reducing longer-term risk. Live to farm another year has to be in your business model.  Click here to get my daily report....

Exports Support Grain Prices....

Nov 21, 2013

USDA weekly export sales were released this morning and were well ABOVE expectations for corn, beans and wheat.  

 

  • Corn exports reported at 945,100 metric tons for 2013-14 and 37,600 metric tons for 2014-15   The trade was looking for a number between 750,000 and 950,000. Last week 1.202 million was reported. 
  • Soy exports reported at 1.3764 million metric tons. The trade was looking for a number between 750,000 and 950,000. Last week 848,500 was reported. 
  • Wheat exports reported at 618,000 metric tons. The trade was looking for a number between 375,000 and 475,000. Last week 287,900 was reported.

As for today I suspect stronger than anticipated export sales will help put a little wind behind our sails and provide us a slight bounce. My fear however in both corn and wheat is that could be only temporary, therefore keep hedges in place. Soybeans on the other hand should eventually be able to find enough traction to pull themselves back to higher ground. Remain patient in regard to "cash-sales" in any market at this juncture.  Click here for all my market comments..

Crop Insurance Numbers You Need to Know for 2014?

Nov 20, 2013

The federal crop insurance program has been a vital part of most producers marketing and management plan.  As you are aware, the details for the crop insurance program next year are tied up in negotiations in Washington DC, with the Farm Bill.  I wanted to give scenarios that could play out in the next few months, under the present system.   

2014 Corn Risk:  Keep in mind our only real farm "safety net" moving forward looks to be federal crop insurance.  The problem is our crop insurance guarantee next year could be substantially lower than the past few years. Remember last years guarantee was set at $5.65 in Feb. In 2012 the guarantee was set at $5.68. For a producer with an APH of 150 and 80% RA that essentially guaranteed revenue of between $678 and $682 per care.  Now all of a sudden we are staring ......Click here for all my comments...

Best Case Scenario: For argument sake assume for a moment that South America starts to run into some weather problems and Chinese demand has been greatly understated.  The corn market in turn the DEC14 corn contract trades somewhere between $4.75 and $5.25 per bushel  during the month of February 2014...Click here for all my comments... 

Most Likely Scenario: Market gains some traction on increasing demand but is weighed down even more heavily on thoughts of increasing global supply.  Trade stays imbedded in what has been a continuing downhill channel and prices for the DEC14 corn contract end up trading somewhere between $3.75 and $4.25 per bushel during the month of February.  In return the producer with the 150 APH and 80% coverage would be guaranteed just $480 per acre. A whopping $200 per acre less than the previous two years. 

Worst Case Scenario: The market aggressively backpedals in early-2014 on near perfect growing conditions in south AMerica and talk of another 14 billion bushel crop possible coming down the pipe here in the US.  All the bad news is in the market so to speak and we trade between $3.25 and $3.75 during the month of February.  The producer with a 150 APH and 80% coverage is now left with a guarantee of just $420 per acre.  Ouch!...Click here for all my comments...

Playing Out The Same Scenario For Soybeans: You ask why producers may end up planting more soybeans and few corn acres. Let me show you soybeans look like the safer play:  In 2012 the spring guarantee was set at $12.55, in 2013 it was set at $12.87. Meaning 40 bushel APH with 80% coverage had guarantees of between $401 and $412 per acre. If you assume the front-end of the trade remains fairly strong and prices stay at their current level, an $11.50 price guarantee, the producers with the above mentioned APH and coverage would be looking at a guarantee of $368 per acre.  Basically $35 to $40 less than the past two-years.  If you want to argue a similar case to corn and depreciate the current value of soy in a similar fashion, which I don't think is accurate (considering how tight current supplies are) you would have to take the average Feb price of NOV14 soybeans down to around $10.15. Even at a $10.15 ...Click here for all my comments... 

2014/15 Summary: Yes, there are many NEW private type insurance policies being offered that can help producers insure a higher price guarantee for corn. And we are also seeing all types of technological bells and whistles being offered to help producers increase yields in order to offset cheaper price, but I am just not sold on the fact US producers are going to roll out another 93-94 million corn acres with prices setting back in such a bold fashion, especially considering many "corn-on-corn" guys have been looking for any excuse they could find the past couple of years to work in a full-rotaion of soybeans. My thoughts are, some of the smarter producers will continue to look ways reduce their out of pocket expense by rolling into more bean acres, and perhaps even buying-down their crop insurance for corn. Why pay the big premiums for insurance with guarantees at such low levels? I suspect more guys will simply use it as a type of catastrophic coverage and try to keep their investment dollars as low as possible.  Kind of like sitting at a black jack table when the dealer turns hot. Smart players tend to throttle back their bets in an attempt to best ride out the wave. The aggressive and often broke gamblers however do just the opposite, often raising their stakes looking for a complete reversal.  Bottom-line, you have to prepare yourself for the fact the bears might deal us an extended series of bearish cards. The last thing you want to do is run out of chips before the cards turn back bullish. Best Advice: Continue to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  This theory tends to keep you in the game the longest! Click here for my daily report....     

Can We See a Front End Rally in Soy?

Nov 19, 2013

Soybean bears continue to question how prices in the deferred contracts can rally in light of such large South American plantings. Most are pointing to the fact Brazil already has close to 70-75% of their soybean crop in the ground (Mato Grosso almost 100% complete), and is running slightly ahead of schedule. With weather looking next to ideal the argument is being made that Brazilian exports could be hitting the market by late-January. In fact there are already reports of China booking beans out of Brazil for early-Feb at a $0.30 to $0.40 cent discount to the US. This will obviously help squelch US demand and strong export sales for the US may end sooner than once anticipated.   Keep in mind the trade is also not ruling out the fact Brazil could produce 90 million metric tons in 2014 and Argentina closer to 58 million metric tons, basically an extra 15-16 million metric tons of soybeans could be coming out of South America this coming year. Understand thats more than the entire state of either Illinois or Iowa produces in a perfect year... hence this could throw a very large number of EXTRA soybean bushels into the marketplace. Lets not forget there is speculation US producers may also plant an additional 6-8 million soybean acres in comparison to this past year. Point is producers have to be fearful of longer-term price depreciation.  Continue to look for any type of rallies in the deferred 2014 or 2015 contracts as your opportunity to reduce more downside exposure.

Nearby, we still need to market another 20% of our soybean production form this year, and will remain patient with cash-sale targets still in place above $13.00.  Moral of the story, don't yet give up on the possibility of another front-end rally in the soy market. Be extremely careful however thinking this strength will eventually roll to the backend. From my perspective the risk clearly remains in the deferred soybean contracts...NOT the nearby.     Click here for the rest of my market comments.....  

 

   

Corn Bulls taken back But Demand pushes Higher......

Nov 18, 2013

Corn bulls are a little taken back by the EPA's confirmation (on Friday) of a reduction in the ethanol mandates. Most sources thinking we go from a mandated 14.4 billion gallons per year in ethanol down to between 12.7 and 13.2 billion mandated gallons.   Many ethanol executives and proponents will tell you this does very little to change overall production this year, essentially because we are going to offset the setback in mandated gallons with increases in ethanol exports and more E85 becoming available to the consumer.  The problem I see however is how the larger traders are interpreting the changes. Just as the stock market bulls have been comfortable pushing stock prices higher with a so called "Bernanke put" in place, the market becomes extremely nervous to the downside when there is talk of the US Fed pulling out.  Same thought process is circulating now in the corn market.  With the US government "tapering" back the "mandated" number of ethanol gallons that are to be produced each year, the longer term bulls who thought the government had their back will be getting more and more nervous with each possible cut or reduction. Remember, it isn't so much the reduction in "demand" right now that is squirreling up the trade, rather it is the fact the US government has decided to reduced or lower what it had proposed as a requirement in the months and years ahead.  

As of right this moment, though overall ethanol demand remains strong. Export sales are also very strong.  Do you realize we have already booked some 65% or more of what the USDA currently has estimated for the entire marketing year?  In other words the recently revised higher export estimates of 1.4 billion by the USDA might still be a bit short of reality.  Several analyst are now arguing the US export sales number  will soon be north of 1.5 billion and perhaps even higher. Bottom-line, nearby export, ethanol and feed demand continue to impress. My question is why be aggressively short with the US now being the low cost provider? I think producers holding recently harvested bushels need to continue being patient waiting for either a rally in flat-price or a rally in the basis. Read the rest of my comments in my daily report by CLICKING HERE...

Trade to Digest Recent News...

Nov 15, 2013

As for today, traders will first be digesting the most recent export sales data (which was strong for corn, ok for soybean, and weak for wheat), followed by the NOPA crush numbers and the latest 2014 acreage outlook by Informa. Remember, in Informa's last report they seemed to be looking for about a 3.6 million acre reduction in corn for next year and about a 7.3 million acre increase in soy acres. I know many analyst and traders are questioning this big of shift, but I am going to side with Informa on this one. I think more US producers are going to be smart and try and shift more corn acres to soybeans. Especially, if we can somehow keep the Feb averages high enough to provide us with a good insurance level.  I just have a hard time seeing DEC14 corn during the month of Feb having a chance to be very attractive.  Soybeans, on the other hand, may have somewhat of a fighting chance during the month of Feb. 

Obviously, a lot will depend on the South American weather between now and then, but this is just my hunch.  I actually suspect both new-crop prices to move lower, but farmers will want to choose the lesser of two evils, and use the downstroke as a much needed rotational year. Basically, a chance for some of the corn-on-corn folks to give a few fields a much needed break. CLICK HERE for my daily report. 

The Soybean Shuffle: Whats Next?

Nov 14, 2013

Soy traders are now talking about six consecutive higher closes…a feat that has not happened in several months. Are we due for a setback? You bet we are. Keep in mind from the low to the high during that short time period we added just over $0.70 cents. The market did its job and pried more bushels from the hands of US producers.  We  had two of our own cash-sale targets hit this week. Did the exporters and crushers buy enough bushels to get them through this massive wave of demand? I say no way possible.  I also say it will get tougher and tougher for them to source the needed bushels once the US farmer puts them away and takes a little vacation time. So the "dance" continues.  Learn one of the bulls favorites, its called "The Soybean Shuffle"... 

Dance Step #1: Exporters and Crushers have to rally prices in order to secure more bushels. Especially when crushers are earning healthy margins and exporters have big line-ups at the docks.  

Dance Step #2: When the Crushers and Exporters have what they can handle they stop bidding up the prices and in turn we start to backpedal.  

Dance Step #3: Once prices fall far enough the US producer simply refuses to sell any more supply and prices have to once again move higher.

Dance Step #4: Prices have to continue moving higher until it entices the US farmer to release more of his bushels.  

Repeat Dance Steps #1 - #4: Except this time the Crushers and Exporters may have to bid up prices just a little bit higher since there become fewer and fewer available bushels in the mix.  CLICK HERE to get all of my market comments...

 

Corn Bulls Hold Out Hope...

Nov 13, 2013

Corn bulls continue to hold out hope that the DEC13 contract can eventually close back above $4.50. Unfortunately, the trade is finding it difficult to string together any real momentum and or multi-day rally with continued talk of increasing US supply. Keep in mind we have multiple states setting new records for yield along with a US harvest that is now running ahead of schedule. As of Sunday, IL only had 7% of their corn left in the field and IA only 12%, in other words both big production states are well ahead of their traditional pace.  Bottom-line, several very good sources continue to talk about how "big crops tend to get bigger." If this is the case, then you have to figure the 14.0 billion bushel plus card is now close to the top of the deck.  Demand is obviously a question mark, but with China now sourcing corn from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine, how serious of a concern can it really be?  From what I am hearing Brazil is still sitting on a large supply of corn and Ukraine is the worlds low-cost producer. Surprisingly, however, Argentina might be a little tighter than most have been anticipating.  Rumors are starting to circulate that the Argentine corn crop may not have been nearly as strong as earlier estimates.  Not saying this is a major bullish card, but it is certainly something worth keeping an eye on.  

Lets not forget about the curve ball the EPA is fixing to throw at us in regard to the ethanol mandate. Moral of the story, major sustained rallies in corn could be tough to come by. Producers who have little to any new-crop sold need to keep one finger on the trigger at all times. If the market pops its head out of the cellar (by showing either a jump in the basis or flat price) you best be taking a shot at reducing more risk.                                        Click here to receive my free daily newsletter sent directly to your email.

How Long Does the Soybean Rally Last?

Nov 12, 2013

Soybeans remain mixed.  Talk is much the same in the fact that nearby prices could push higher on the heels of strong demand and very tight global supply.

However, moving forward, talk of 90.0 mmts plus coming out of Brazil and perhaps over 55.0 mmts out of Argentina makes the balance sheets look much more burdensome. In fact many bears are starting to think soybean prices could eventually end up with $9 in front of them.  I certainly understand the downside risk associated with prices, but I also want to make sure everyone knows the crops are not grown inside a bubble. With supply still extremely tight and global demand not looking as if it is slowing down, any type of hiccup in weather will make the trade extremely nervous.  With this in mind I continue to patiently wait for higher prices in 2014 & 2015 before pricing any additional bushels. Those producers who have little to no bushels sold should continue to use the current rallies to get yourselves caught up.   

Our latest cash sales target was hit last night in the overnight market. We still have another 25% of our 2013 soybean production to move and have cash sale targets resting in the market.  We are actually working on reducing more risk in 2014 and 2015 at profitable levels... Strategies you don't want to miss out on!  

Read the rest of my comments in my daily report by CLICKING HERE....

Can the Corn Rally Continue?

Nov 12, 2013

Corn traders have to be wondering how long the short covering rally can last.  Problem is the bears are already pointing out the fact 17 US states are either in the process of or have already ensured record yields will be harvested in 2013. There is also talk that the current USDA "feed demand" estimate for corn is overly optimistic. On the global front, we are also facing stiff headwinds as world corn supplies push to levels not seen since 2000. In fact several respected sources are now talking about DEC14 corn prices eventually falling to sub-$3.50 levels before finding a solid bottom.  My question remains, if everyone is already on the same page, how many NEW bears are left to help drive the prices lower.  Remember, just as we needed to constantly be adding NEW bulls to keep prices moving to the upper end of the range ($7.00 to $8.00) we need to be adding NEW bears to the equation to push prices to the low end of the range ($3.00 to $4.00).  My guess is the longer we try and hold the markets head below what many believe is the cost of production it will violently fight back in an attempt to catch its breath.  

Morgan Stanley saying corn is one of their top bullish bets: Reports are circulating that the bank is not only bullish short-term but thinks corn prices could average $5.30 a bushel in 2013-14, much higher than most any other analyst. The difference of opinion seems to come from the thought that global demand will rebound much higher on the cheaper prices and in turn world supplies have peaked and will soon start to tighten. Goldman Sachs and other large investment banks believe there is still more downward price pressure possible for all three major crops (corn, beans, wheat).

To get all of my market news CLICK HERE for my daily report....the VAN TRUMP REPORT

 

 

What to do with your remaining soybeans??

Nov 11, 2013

Soybeans remain mixed, with bulls screaming about an extremely tight nearby supply situation, followed on the back-end by the bears screaming about a very bearish record South American crop and what looks like a potential record US crop going in the ground for 2014.  Technical traders continue to talk about a price gap on the JAN14 chart at around $13.75. That number seems a little optimistic, but I wouldn't rule it out of the realm of possibilities. For me, I would just like to see a strong close back above the $13.15 level before I start talking about prices north of $13.50.  I am assuming if both Chinese demand and US crush margins stay strong, which I think they will, we could be looking at a very difficult equation to solve in soy closer to year-end.  Producers should keep looking at nearby rallies in the front-end as an opportunity to get more of your 2013 crop priced (In our model account we still need to move the final 30% of our cash production). We also have to be hoping the nearby somehow pulls the 2014 and 2015 higher so we can reduce a little more risk out there as well. I realize South America still has an entire growing season of potential problems and that we do not raise crops inside a bubble, but I feel like eventually, one of these years, both South American and US producers are going to enjoy favorable growing conditions back-to-back.  If that happens in 2014, with record acreage in the ground, bean price could take a serious tumble.  Just make sure you recognize the downside concerns and are working with your advisor to reduce your risk in the deferred contracts. 

Click here for my next recommendation

What to expect from the USDA Friday morning...

Nov 06, 2013

USDA prepares to give us two reports for the price of one Friday. Remember, this is the first time in history the USDA has actually skipped an entire report. This is a long time to go without out an update so expect some potential surprises. Below are a few interesting facts to consider: 

 

  • Corn production estimates for the 2013 crop have ranged from a low of 13.76 billion bushels back in Aug to a high of 14.14 billion back in May. 
    • Yield thought to be moving higher from a 155.3 in the Sept report up to around 159 in the upcoming Nov report. 
    • Harvested acres thought to be moving lower from 89.1 million down closer to 88 million acres. 
    • Average ending stock estimates for corn pushing higher to 2.029 billion bushels vs. the previous USDA estimate of 1.855 billion bushels.  World ending stocks also thought to be pushing higher, 151.42 in Sept up to 154.21 in the upcoming report.    
  • Soybean production estimates for the 2013 crop have ranged from a low of 3.15 billion bushels back in Sept to a high of 3.42 billion back in July.
    • Yield thought to be moving higher from a 41.2 bushels in the Sept report up to around 42.3 bushels in the upcoming Nov report. 
    • Harvested acres thought to be moving lower from 76.3 million down to  around 75.9 million acres.
    • Average ending stock estimates for soybeans pushing higher to 172 million bushels vs. the previous USDA estimate of 150 million bushels. World ending stocks also thought to be pushing higher, 71.54 in Sept up to 72.28 in the upcoming report.    
  • Wheat average ending stock estimates thought to be moving lower to 519 million bushels vs. the previous USDA estimate of 561 million bushels. World ending stocks thought to be moving lower, 176.28 in Sept down to 175.88 in the upcoming report.    
  • November USDA reports are generally thought to be extremely accurate, generally within 1-2% of the USDA's final total. Pay close attention to Friday's numbers as they will clearly set the tone for the remainder of the race! 

 

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Don't miss my break down of the USDA WASDE report Friday morning..it should be a wild ride!

Soybeans over $13... A real possibility??

Nov 05, 2013

Soybean traders continue to juggle several balls. Below are a few of the main debates currently taking place between the Bulls and the Bears: The question we all want to know as producers is will the Bulls be correct in thinking that prices move back up closer to $13 nearby before tumbling in 2014, or are the bears correct in thinking the race is now on to push towards the Aug lows set back at $11.69? For what its worth I am siding with the "Bulls," and continue to believe there is still another round of price appreciation coming our direction.

 

  • Global Supply (Bullish) - Exportable global supplies are without a doubt extremely tight right now. There are actually many traders questioning if the US is going to have enough soy supply to meet overall global demand. In fact some are speculating that the US may eventually...click here 
  • Global Demand (Bullish) - Obviously strong demand is keeping prices in the front-end of the trade well supported. Yesterday's weekly export inspections were once again better than expected. The concern is that just 7-weeks into the marketing year we already have over 85% of the USDA's total export estimate sold. Normally we would have about 50% of the USDA's export estimate sold at this juncture. Bottom-line...click here 
  • US Production (Bearish) - There doesn't seem to be anyone left in the game who thinks the US soybean crop is getting smaller. In fact some analyst are projecting a NEW all-time record yield north of 44 bushels per acre. I know this sounds extreme, especially when you consider the fact the USDA is currently estimating the yield at 41.2 bushels per acre. Unfortunately at this juncture we still can't rule it out of the realm of possibility...click here
  • South American Production (Bearish) - Brazil is thought to already have over 50% of their record soybean crop in the ground and is now running ahead of schedule. Insiders are saying the top soybean production state of Mato Grosso is closer to 75% planted (about 10% ahead of pace). Keep in mind recent rains have also vastly improved planting conditions in Argentina. Bottom line...click here

 

Find out what to expect out of the USDA's WASDE report by clicking HERE

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