Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Chinese Lies & Corn Concerns
May 24, 2011
I hate to keep harping on it, but I find the way the USDA is handling the entire Chinese corn story a joke. First of all, a sale of 1 million tons of US corn was reported as being sold to an "unknown" destination. After the trade suspects it is China, the Chinese government denied they had purchased any US corn, and further confirmed they have no interest in corn. Now all of a sudden we have actual ships being loaded with US corn set sail for China, and Sinograin, China's designated corn buyer admitting that they have in fact purchased some US corn, but won't reveal how much. Why do we continue to listen to these people and buy into their lies? I have no idea how much corn they will end up buying or the amount of corn they actually need, but do believe they have a definite corn problem brewing. Maybe they make it through another year, who knows. I am telling you now, there is no way they would be changing around corn limitations, adding additional taxes to corn based products, canceling bean shipments to make room for corn shipments, constantly lying about their stock levels if there was no problem or they were not worried about coming up short corn. Like I have said in the past, you can't get caught up in the numbers, because they are all a joke...you have to try and get a feel for the big picture and how they are trying to manipulate the trade.
* If you want to entertain yourself and further follow the Chinese propaganda, there was some data released yesterday by China's "CNGOIC" which has thrown out their initial estimates for this years Chinese crop production. Guess what...it's a new record! Imagine that, China announcing the projection of yet another record crop. This time they are telling the world their 2011 corn acres have jumped 2% and their total crop will be at a new record of 181.5 million metric tons. Their wheat crop should be around 115.5 million metric tons, and soybean crop right around 14 million metric tons. If you have been watching most of the "private" estimates for corn, wheat and soy production in China they are almost all significantly lower. Why does China even bother, these numbers are a complete joke.
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