Sep 30, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Are Crop Conditions Pointing to Record US Yield?

Jul 07, 2014

Corn continues to dance to the same old song... "June 1st stocks were more than 1 BILLION bushels greater than last year."  The other concerning factor for the bulls is that this year's new-crop production could end up in excess of 14.0 billion bushels... simply assume 83 million harvested acres x 168.7 bushel per acre yield = 14.002 billion bushels of total US corn production. As this simple math logic penetrates deeper into the market I have to suspect prices will continue to fall under pressure as traders speculate on the greater probability of increasing supply. There is already a lot of talk about the USDA drastically decreasing their "feed usage" estimate, and when you throw on top a record crop, this could push US ending stocks (over 2.0 billion) to the highest level we have seen in over a quarter century.  I suspect this headline will certainly start to gain more trade attention, especially if the overall US corn crop stays rated at 70% "Good-to-Excellent" or higher during the month of July. The way it looks right now that  could very well end up being the case, especially when you consider the crop is currently rated 75% GD/EX and there is very little in the weather forecast that makes me believe we are going to see a major hiccup.  Keep in mind, most sources are thinking over 50% of the entire US corn crop will be "pollinated" within the next 10-days.  Meaning after that a large portion of the crop risk is basically off the table.CLICK HERE for my daily report.

Are Crop Conditions Pointing To Record US Yield? Below is some USDA data I recently compiled that I thought you might find interesting. What's important is that in 2009 the crop was rated 70% GD/EX at the end of July and we ended up setting a NEW record yield at 164.7 bushels per acre.  In the same breath, the following year (2010) the crop was rated 71% GD/EX at the end of July and we ended up with a below trend-line yield of 152.8 bushels per acre.  Moral of the story, there's still a ton of time left: 
 
    • 2013 (week ending July 28th) - 63% of the US crop was rated GD/EX. We ended up harvesting 87.67 acres @ 158.8 yield.  
    • 2012 (week ending July 29th) - 24% of the US crop was rated GD/EX. We ended up harvesting 87.38 million acres @ 123.4 yield.  
    • 2011 (week ending July 31st) - 62% of the US crop was rated GD/EX. We ended up harvesting 83.99 million acres @ 147.2 yield.  
    • 2010 (week ending Aug 1st) - 71% of the US crop was rated GD/EX. We ended up harvesting 81.45 million acres @ 152.8 yield.   
    • 2009 (week ending July 26th) - 70% of the US crop was rated GD/EX.  We ended up harvesting 79.49 million acres @ 164.7 yield (NEW Record US Yield).  
    • 2008 (week ending July 27th) - 66% of the US crop was rated GD/EX.  We ended up harvesting 78.57 million acres @ 153.9 yield.  
    • 2007 (week ending July 29th) - 58% of the US crop was rated GD/EX.  We ended up harvesting 86.52 million acres @ 150.7 yield. CLICK HERE for my daily report...
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