Jul 24, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Bearish Surprise Seems Limited in Upcoming USDA Report

Jun 26, 2014

Corn continues to trade in a tight range near the bottom of the barrel. The DEC14contract seems content hovering just above the early-Jan lows of $4.35.  Many of the "tech" players believe if the market closes below that level a test of the $4.05-$4.10 area could soon be in order. On the other hand, several of the larger spec's and fund traders I speak with think the market could be a bit oversold right in here and due for a little bounce. The odds of a bearish surprise seem limited, especially with everybody and their brother already aligned on the bearish side of the boat and bracing for impact.  Who out there isn't already worried or if you wanted to play the short side hasn't already placed their bets on more burdensome US supplies? Who out there hasn't already thought about 92.5 million acres planted and a potential 168 bushel yield? Which would essentially insure us ending stocks of over 2.0 billion bushels and prices potentially under $3.90 per bushel. Obviously there are a million "what if's", but from my perspective it still ALL comes down to the US weather, and how much are you willing to bet on the outcome??? Will the rains continue to fall across the northwestern portion of the corn belt? Will we have a short fall, which could cause harvest hiccups? Will we have flooding problems down south? My gut tells me this market doesn't post it's low until most of the major weather hurdles are behind us... meaning sometime during the month of August.  The "crop tours" and all the hype surrounding a record crop will be in full swing and everybody will be on the bandwagon. I suspect the bears will then have a hard time keeping that type of fire burning and the risk to reward will be much less enticing for the funds. If we can catch a weather rally of some sort before then it would be nice, but if "Mother Nature" continues with her current forecast I'm afraid we may have to sit here another 30-45 days as prices slowly grind lower and more bears come to feast on the kill. I'm simply going to stay patient. Focus as much attention as you can on producing your best crop ever... Don't let the markets get you down!  CLICK HERE for my daily report....      

Good Source...Roach Ag Has Corn Planting Lower:  The folks over at Roach Ag, who generally have very good research, took a recent survey and now believe US corn acres could be lower than the trade is anticipating. From what I heard the group is thinking more acres were lost in areas like MN, NE, ND, SD & WI than most realize...due to a long winter and very wet spring. In fact they are thinking total planted acres could actually fall below 90 million for the first time since 2010.  For all of us who have more bushel to price lets hope the research team over at Roach Ag is correct in their assessment. The fear is the numbers coming out on Monday will be from a survey the USDA conducted between late-May to mid-June, perhaps a bit ahead of the heavy rains and flooding that washed out many of the fields in the northern pasts of the belt. Meaning the reduction in acres may be slow to develop or reveal.  In fact they maybe counted in the "abandonment" category rather than subtracted from the planted area???  CLICK HERE for my daily report.... 

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