Sep 17, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Can Demand Strength Overcome "Sea of Soybeans"?

Jul 08, 2014

Soybeans traders are not only digesting record US acreage (Potential 85 million plus) but also now have to consider the fact this is the second best overall crop-conditon rating (72% of the crop rated GD/EX) we have ever seen for soybeans at this stage of the game and the absolute best since 1994. Yes, its still early for soybeans and we are a long ways from the end of August, but you can't ignore the current facts... which are record acreage and near ideal growing conditions. In return the race is on to see who can project the highest average USDA yield.  As of right now it seems the trade has bid up the yield estimate to a NEW record 46 or perhaps even 46.5 bushels per acre! The only real bright spot I can find is the fact demand remains strong, which was made apparent by yesterday's USDA announcement of 347,000 MMTs of new-crop beans being sold to China.  Unfortunately this is still not near enough to combat the "sea of soybeans" we may soon be swimming in.  CLICK HERE for my daily report....

Morgan Stanley Cuts Soybean Rating: From what I heard yesterday, the bank cut from "neutral" to "neutral-bearish" its rating on soybean futures. On the flip side I hear they seem to have a bit higher hopes hopes for corn, cotton and wheat and, especially, live cattle, which it sees as one of the best bets in commodities. The big US bank is focused in on the NEW record number of US acres (3 to 5 million more than most had anticipated) and the fact we could soon be looking at a seasonal pickup in Argentina's soybean crush and export pace. Even though they are bearish soybeans and seem to believe another $1.00 break could be in the cards they seem to be the most bearish the sugar market.

USDA leaves weekly soybean crop-conditons unchanged at 72% GD/EX; 23% Fair; 5% P/VP. Soybeans blooming now at 24% vs. 14% last week vs. the 5-year average 21%. Here is the current ranking from best conditions to worst: KY 81%; ND & TN 80%; WI 77%; MO & SD 76%; IL 75%; IA, LA & NE 73%; MI 72%; IN 71%; MS & OH 70%; NC 65%; KS 62%; MN 61%; AR 57%  CLICK HERE for my daily report...

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