Sep 18, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

China..Old Crop Beans add to Market Volatility

Aug 26, 2014

Soybean traders are trying to digest what has become an extremely violent and dangerous front-end of the market.  Yesterday's -$0.60 cent plus plunge from the high to the low certainly opened a few eyes. The new-crop NOV14 contract also fell under pressure and posted a NEW low on the charts at $10.26, which now becomes nearby support. Longer-term, I still believe the market is "technically" looking to test the $10.06 or $10.05 area vs. the NOV14 contract before finding more stable footing.  The harvest in the Delta region appears to be coming along nicely and generating better than expected yields.  I also continue to hear producers further north trying to harvest earlier than normal in an effort to capture some additional premium. There are also more and more reports circulation that beans are turning yellow in some key locations, meaning harvest is just a few short weeks away. All of this simply equates to the old-crop supply story finally starting to unwind itself. The only real bullish news to speak of, which isn't bullish when you consider the entire picture, is the slight reduction by the USDA in their weekly crop condition estimate.  What we have to recognize is the current US soybean crop still stands at a very healthy 70% rated "Good-to-Excellent." As you can see from the chart below, a crop we haven't seen rated this good in a very long time. Also don't forget that condition number is being reported on larger than ever record acreage.            CLICK HERE for my daily report... 

Bank of China Could Cut Credit:  There is some talk and chatter the Bank of China is in the process of cutting the credit rating on a couple of large Chinese importers. Keep your eye on this the next few days.    

Soybean Rated Good-to-Excellent" by State: LA 84% up +2% on the week; MS 79%; IL 78% "unchanged" on the week; MO 76% down -2%; ND & TN 75% up +1%; IA 73% unchanged; OH 73% up +1%; NE 71% up +1%; SD 71%; WI & IN 69% up +2%; MN 66% up +2%; MI 63% down -1%; AR 62% down -1%; KY -58% down -1%; KS 48% down -5% 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS (1 Comments)

steffy
beans turning yellow further north sounds like an early die off due to disease.it way to early for beans to be turning in Ia and ill
7:17 AM Aug 26th
 
 
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions