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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump,

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

China/South America Soy Dynamics Keep Markets Guessing....

Apr 14, 2014

Soybean traders remain on extremely opposite ends of the fence. The bears continue to talk about the Chinese, at least for the current moment, becoming "sellers" of soybean rather than massive "buyers". There continues to be talk of massive "cancelations" coming in the days ahead and that Chinese soy imports could actually be lower this summer than they were last summer. The bears are also eager to start announcing the arrival of South American soy imports into the US and cheering for a NEW record number of planted US soybean acres. The bulls however remain focused on the extremely tight US old-crop supply headlines, tomorrows upcoming NOPA crush numbers (which could add even more merit to the tight supply-side story), and talk of labor strikes and political uncertainties in South America.                         CLICK HERE for my daily report....

Why I am NOT Bullish On South American Headlines: Even though there are headlines and constant talk from the bulls about logistical issues and general shipment problems out of South America, Brazil's harvest is running about 10% ahead of schedule for both soybeans and corn, and the movement of the crop to both the ports and out of the country seems to be much smoother than last year.  I am NOT saying things are perfect, but they do certainly seem improved.  The first-crop corn is thought to be about 75% harvested and full-season soybeans about 88% harvested at this juncture. From my perspective I just don't see any reason to be bullish either corn or soybeans based on South American news.  CLICK HERE for my daily report...

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