Sep 23, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Corn Bulls Eye Exports, Weather and Geopolitical News....

Mar 27, 2014

Corn Summary: As you can see from above, the "Bulls" are disregarding most of the traditional "Supply & Demand" rules and right now prefer to place their bets on the long side of corn as a geopolitical hedge and or a weather type play.  The "Bears" are arguing enough is enough and that the Bulls have clearly added the risk premium needed to cover both the current weather conditions and the long-term risk associated with Russia/Ukraine.  Keep in mind, both are very valid arguments and are waged by extremely smart traders.  This simply confirms my reasoning for being 50% sold/hedge in new-crop and 100% SOLD OUT in old-crop.  From a more traditional "Supply & Demand" perspective, moving higher simply makes no sense to me, but when you start to throw in all the other moving parts and strange dynamics that have occurred the past few weeks, traditional analysis is out the window...at least temporarily. Make sure you understand this battle could clearly go either direction right now, be smart and reduce some of your risk!       CLICK HEREfor my daily report....

 

Below are a couple of additional thoughts regarding corn....

 

Ethanol production has ticked back a touch as of late as several plants continue to run into logistical headwinds caused by lack of available transportation. The margins have been terrific, but as I have identified on several occasions, getting rail to and from destinations is another story. I am even hearing that we will once again start seeing "imports" of ethanol hit the US shores.  CLICK HERE for my daily report.....

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