Oct 2, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Corn Bulls Focus on US Weather...

Apr 10, 2014

Corn traders are digesting a 125 million bushel jump in the USDAs corn export estimate. This now places exports at 1.750 billion bushels.  I have been saying for the past three months we are going to 1.8 billion bushels in exports and I am sticking to my guns, even though there remains a large number of "unshipped" sales still sitting on the books.  Something that seems hard for the bears to digest is the fact even though we produced a NEW all-time record US corn crop last year (13.925 billion bushels), we still only added just over 500 million bushels to total ending stocks as demand jumps higher by some 2.3 billion bushels. Somewhat of a surprise was the fact the USDA actually raised Brazil's corn production estimate by 2.0 million metric tons from 70.0 to 72.0 million metric tons. It wasn't really a surprise that they raised their estimate higher, but by 2.0 million metric tons seemed a bit aggressive. The bears are excited because this now gives us a world corn stocks number of 158.0 million metric tons vs. last years much tighter level of 134.4 million metric tons.  You can debate the numbers all day long, from here on out its going to be ALL about US weather! If we have any additional bullish weather related headlines, the funds are going to press their bets and prices are going higher.  No weather event...the funds get bored with the trade and prices begging to tumble.  I wish I could give you a better indication of the weather but unfortunately it is still a BIG unknown.  I remain 50% sold/hedged.                                         CLICK HERE for my daily report....

Producers Starting to go for Shorter Varieties: There is a little more talk from producers who are bumping back planting dates and make a jump to shorter variety corn seeds. As of right now most of the pro-active producers are ahead of the curve and making the proper plans so good numbers are still available. If you think you might need to back up the date the planters roll make sure you are talking things over with your seed salesman and making the proper adjustments. Supplies and availability of sorter seed varieties might get a bit tight this year.

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