Aug 1, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Corn News and Questions Before the USDA Report.....

Mar 28, 2014

Corn demand here in the US remains extremely strong.  Export commitments are now some 165% higher than last year at this time.  Most sources thinking we need to sell fewer than 1 million tons within the next 5 months to reach the current USDA export estimate.  Moral of the story, despite Chinese cancelations the USDA will still need to raise there total export estimate.  I am still sticking to my guns at 1.8 billion bushels.  A number I threw out over three months ago and everyone said I was nuts...Maybe???  Remember, in Argentina (the worlds #2 corn exporter) farmers seem more interested in harvesting soybeans right now rather than corn. The world's #3 exporter, Ukraine, is still a bit of a concern for some global importers.  In other words I am thinking US corn exports could remain strong for a bit longer.  The flip side to this bullish part of the equation is that the International Grains Council is estimating total global corn production at 961 million tons, basically 7 million metric tons higher than their previous estimate and 2 million metric tons higher than last year, putting world stocks at near 15-year highs. Or in other words about a 35% jump in stock in just two years time.       CLICK HERE for my daily report....

March Stocks - As I mentioned above, this number is always extremely volatile and heavily debated.  I suspect nothing less on  Monday.  Keep in mind theDEC13 quarterly stocks came in lower than the trade was anticipating due to the large feed number.  Thoughts are the MAR14 quarterly stocks number makes a lower adjustment to feedings. But who knows, CLICK HERE for my daily report....

 

Planted Acreage The USDA Ag Outlook has the 2014 new-crop corn acres estimated at 92.0 million.  The trade is thinking that number could be closer to 93 million  Last year we planted 95.365 million acres. Just keep in mind we had a very large number of "preventive plant" acres.   After the release of the acreage number on Monday, I expect the bears will be quick to point out that the "planted acreage" number generally tends to CLICK HERE for my daily report.... 

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