Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Corn trader arguing about the "weather" ....imagine that!
Apr 12, 2013
The bears are proclaiming the "drought" is over, especially in the Eastern Corn Belt. They are also excited to see more beneficial rains in the Western Corn Belt. The bulls on the other hand continue to talk about delays in planting and the drought in Western Iowa, Nebraska and parts of Kansas. Just keep in mind thousands of corn acres in both Nebraska and Kansas are "irrigated." I should also point out that a lot more corn acres in Iowa and Illinois have gone under irrigation the past couple of years as well. Moral of the story, there really is no "weather story" in the corn market right now. Yes, planting is running behind last years rapid pace, but the rains and cooler temps in most areas have been welcomed. In the end I firmly believe US producers are going to show us just how quickly they can bang this corn in the ground.
I have to believe the USDA's planting progress numbers released Monday after the close will show no more than 5% of the US crop being planted, with some states like Louisiana being almost 100% complete. Technically speaking the bulls are continuing to look for a breakout and or close above the $5.50 level in the DEC13 contract as a sign of higher new crop prices. On the other side, bearish technicians are looking for a close below the previous near-term low of $5.25^4 (set on April 1st) as a sing of further weakness. Bottom-line the trade continues to discuss the possibility of a 2.0 to 2.5 billion bushel carryout next year. If this is actually the case then we are no where close to the bottom of this down-hill price slide.
Producers have to prepare, using the rallies to get caught up and further reducing risk. Click the link below to sign-up for my daily report and find out when I will be making my next corn sale.