The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Corn may get a bit of a short-term bounce on what some believe is a fairly conservative Pro Farmer total crop estimate. Many analyst in the trade have been talking about a yield at or around 172 bpa and a total crop closer to 14.5 billion bushels. These are both well above what Pro Farmer threw out on the table. There is also more talk by the bulls that a "normal first frost date" could takeout a small percentage of the crop up north. Yes, that's an arguable case, but tell me when was the last time a "freeze" event sparked a major longer-term rally in corn? I'm not saying it isn't possible...I'm just thinking it isn't probable! Therefore, if you take a major bullish "weather event" out of the equation, I'm afraid there is still additional downside price-risk. From a "technical" perspective many traders continue to talk about fairly heavy resistance in new-crop corn (DEC14) between $3.80 and $3.90. From a producers perspective this might be good area to target for reducing some additional new-crop risk??? Something else to consider is the fact harvest is rolling down south, and form what I continue to hear the overall yields have been very strong. In other words continue to take advantage of the rallies when they present themselves. Reduce your risk to only those bushels you are comfortable storing and or carrying for the proverbial "long haul." I continue to worry that the bears at-bat could extend further than some producer's credit-line. Defend, defend, defend remains the battle cry! CLICK HERE for my daily report...
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