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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump,

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Crop Production Esitmates Out Later Today

Nov 01, 2012


USDA reported "winter wheat" conditions much worse than expected, with just 40% rated "Good-to-Excellent." There was 46% of the crop rated "Good-to-Excellent" last year at this time. The USDA also reporting 15% of the US crop rated "Poor-to-Very Poor" vs. 13% last year. A whopping 61% of South Dakota's winter wheat crop is rated "Poor-to-Very Poor" while just 5% of the crop was rated "Good" and 0% rated "Excellent." Winter wheat planting is now 3% ahead of schedule at 88% complete, the only problem is "emergence" is reported at just 63% or some 4% behind our average. Some additional USDA numbers are included below:
  • South Dakota wheat just 23% emerged vs. 5-year average of 88% emerged.
  • Nebraska showing 49% of their wheat crop in "Poor-to-Very Poor" condition. Just 9% of their crop in "Good-to-Excellent" condition. 
  • Oregon & South Dakota showing 0% of their wheat crop in "Excellent" condition: CO & NE 1%; IL, KS & OK 2%; MT 3%; TX 4%. 
  • Corn reported as 91% harvested with the Eastern Belt lagging the Western belt. 5-year average 60%
  • SD 100% harvested; MO & TN 99%; MN 98%; KS 97%; TX,KY & NC 96%; IA 95%; IL, NE & ND 94%; IN 81%; CO 80%; WI 77%; OH & PA 64%; MI 57% 
  • Soybean harvest is 87% complete 
  • MN, WI, SD & ND 100% harvested: NE & MS 98%; IA & LA 97%; IL & MI 87%; AR 84%; IN 81%; OH 795; KS 74%; KY 70%; TN 66%; MO 62%; NC 17%
  • Cotton harvest advances to 50% complete, which compares to 47% on average and 56% vs. last year.
  • Rice reported at 94% harvested, now just 2% ahead of the 5-year average.


FC Stone is scheduled to throw out their latest round of estimates after the close today. During their last attempt they estimated the US corn crop at 10.824 billion and the yield at 123.9 bushels per acre. For soybeans they estimated the US crop at 2.849 billion on a yield of 38.2 bushels per acre. Let's also keep in mind Informa should be throwing their latest estimates in the hat as well. Last month Informa estimated corn at 11.194 billion bushels on a yield of 127 bushels per acre. The USDA estimated the US corn crop lower than both Informa and FC Stone at 10.706 billion bushels on a yield of 122 bushels per acre.
*USDA Export sales data is delayed until Friday! 

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