The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
As the latest FSA data shows close to 1.687 million acres of soy and about 3.572 million acres of corn were unable to get in the ground because of the unusually wet spring. Be careful with these numbers as they are very controversial. Yes, they will change again, and who knows how NASS will interpret the data this year. Traditionally, the 5-year average ratio of FSA acres to NASS ends up being just below 97%. Meaning if you use the 91.428 million corn acre number reported this morning by the FSA you could conclude a final NASS number just above 94.25 million. 5-year average in soy is a little higher at about 98.5%. Meaning if you use this mornings FSA data of 74.659 million soy acres you could conclude NASS will estimate the acreage at around 75.75 million acres compared to their current 77.2 million estimate. Keep in mind these are just W.A.G. numbers...or in other words "wild ass guesses." Thoughts are I could see the USDA cutting "planted acres" in the upcoming Oct report by 2-3 million in corn and by 750,000 to 1.5 million in soybeans, wheat acres could be cut by close to 2 million.
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