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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

How Long Will This Pull-Back in the Grains Last?

May 06, 2011

 I thought it was fitting to start the morning wire off with an old trade adage, "Remember, commodities tend to take the stairs higher when going up, but like to use the elevator when going down..."  Once again, we have seen just how true this statement is.  During Thursday’s day session and throughout the overnight session, Gold went down almost $50 in one day, Silver down almost $15 dollars in the past sessions, Crude down over $10 on extended limits... it was just a complete mass exodus from the funds, ETF's and small speculators.  It seems like the first domino to fall was the metals market, then we moved into the energies and have in the overnight spilled over into the Ags.  Friday was shaping up to be just as volatile as recent days and did not disappoint.  In the overnights Crude, Metals and finally Ags, rallied right before the open of the Friday day session.  Corn, Beans and wheat were all up through half of the morning.  The market seemed on track to take back a good chunk of what we had lost yesterday.  That is, until Greece came out in the middle of the morning and said that they are thinking of abandoning the Euro.  This sent the markets reeling with the Dollar getting a substantial boost and commodities taking a good hit.  Corn looked to go limit down, but hung on to the end of the day with July ending at $6.86 and both wheat and beans ending in the positive.  The grains seemed to get a little shot in the arm from the Informa numbers released in the morning.  Overall they were fairly bullish numbers with corn acreage down 300k to 91.9 million.  Soybeans dow 600k to 76.0 million and spring Wheat down 360k to 14.0 million. 

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