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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump,

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Is an early freeze in the cards?

Aug 14, 2013

 Fears of an early freeze or even a regular freeze having a greater impact on soybean yields than corn yields, In fact many analyst are now estimating that even a normal dated freeze could put 15-20% of the US soybean crop in some type of yield jeopardy, simply due to the late-planting, lack of sunlight and cool temps that have prevailed this growing season.  What I find ironic however is the fact soybean conditions as of RIGHT NOW actually rank much better than corn on a historical scale. Meaning it all hinges on rainfall and temps during the next few weeks, and without damage to the crop I see it highly unlikely that beans can maintain their premium. With the corn/soybean ratio pushing to more extreme highs (2.7:1 yesterday) many specs might be feeling the pain. For what it is worth, I heard reports circulating that the all-time highs in this spread were set back in the fall of 2009 at about a $3.70 premium to the bean side of the equation (vs. 2 DEC corn contracts). As of this morning we seem to be correcting a touch, but I would continue to except extreme volatility over the next few weeks. A couple of things to keep an eye today: Argentine workers at soybean crushing facilities are expected to go on a one-day strike. Shouldn't be a major issue unless it turns into something more pressing; let’s also keep our eye on the Chinese weather situation where extreme heat, flooding, and now a Typhoon are forecast.   

Courtesy of the Van Trump Report...Read More
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