The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
As for today, it seems as if soybeans will continue to push higher on lower than expected US production and continued new-crop buying from China. The bulls continue to talk about massive Chinese purchases, just keep in mind in order to reach the USDA's current lofty import target of 69MMT's...they need to be massive! As of right now it is thought that China has purchased about 2.0 million metric tons MORE from the US than they had at this point last year (10.7 vs 12.7MMT's). With new-crop soybeans almost $0.80 cents off last weeks 14-month lows in the $11.60's, producers needing to make catch-up sales should consider pulling the trigger! I think it is very important to get 70% of your soybean risk OFF the table early this year at "guaranteed" profitable levels. In my opinion there are just still too many potential bearish cards in the deck to speculate with any more production than that. As for spec's, I continue to like the longer-term thoughts of being "long corn vs. short soybeans" (at a 2:1 ratio). There is talk circulating that this is only the 6th time in the past 38-years that the price ratio for SX/2CZ has gone beyond $3.
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