Is There More Bullish News for Beans?
Apr 04, 2014
Soybean bulls were excited to see the Senate Committee pass the $1 Blender's Tax Credit. Keep in mind though this only a small victory or should I say small battle won, most still believe the overall war will ultimately be lost once it reaches the House. There still seems ton some heavy debate in regard to Brazil's soybean crop. I am hearing estimate that range anywhere from 85-89 MMT's and we are closing in on 75% of the crop being harvested. In fact we will soon be close to 100% harvested in Mato Grosso (the largest soybean producing state in Brazil) before long. Keep in mind the current USDA forecast still stands at 88.5 MMTs. The Argentine crop is still thought to be somewhere between 53.5 and 54.5 MMTs'. Here in the US, similar to corn, new-crop prices are ultimately going to hinge on the weather and total yield. The bears and the USDA want to use projected crop data that shows "harvested" bean acres at well over 80 million and a national yield at 45.2 bushels per acre. I personally don't see how you can add 5 million more soybean acres, which is a major jump in the all-time record, and at the same time project a record average yield. Obviously no one knows for certain, but I think 80 million harvested acres is a bit of a stretch. I just don't see harvested bean acres being much higher than that. And I am certainly NOT sold on a 45 bushel per acre national average yield. Remember, our highest yield ever came back in 2009 at 44.0 bushels per acre on 76.4 million harvested. Bottom-line, if the average yield is much below last years 43.3 bpa then new-crop prices could slowly keeping working higher. If yields are closer to 45 bushels per acre on average, then the bears are right and new-crop prices are aggressively over priced. Place your bets accordingly! CLICK HERE for my daily report.....
How Much Soybeans Will The US Have To Import? The question I would like to know is how many bushels of South American beans will eventually end up in the US? Will we import 50, 60 or 70 million metric tons of soybeans? FWIW the first half crop-year total is right around 20.2 million bushels, more than double what we had imported last year at this time. My point is, even though the USDA will more than likely be raising US soybean "exports" in the upcoming report (my guess by 25-35 million bushels), they will at the same time be offsetting this additional demand by increasing "imports."