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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybean bulls keep trying to revive the glory days by stoking the potential flames associated with the old-crop balance sheet. Anyway you want to slice it this story is still not 100% dead, but there is only 30-45 days left before the story is "officially" over. In other words, as bearish as the new-crop balance sheet may appear longer-term, there are still some traders in the marketplace very uncertain about nearby availability of supply. In other words, it wouldn't surprise me anytime between now and the end of August to see a $0.30 to $0.50 cent rally, maybe even a $0.50 cent to $1.00 rally if we can catch some type of bullish weather story from down South to go along with the old-crop supply shortage headlines. All we need is talk of a delayed harvest or flooding conditions down South and the front-end of the soybean market takes back off to higher ground. Remember, the trade is desperately counting on the early new-crop bushels to immediately solve the current supply shortage concerns. Understand, I am by no means bullish the soy market longer-term (just too many US and South American acres in the ground), but I do believe we might get an opportunity to make some additional new-crop sales between $11.00 and $11.30 vs. NOV14 if we catch the final tail winds that the old-crop bulls are trying to stir up. Pay close attention and keep one finger on the trigger. I'm afraid our opportunities to reduce more long-term risk may be fleeting at best between now and harvest. To say the August weather is going to be extremely important to the soybean market would be an obvious and gross understatement...sorry to keep pointing out the obvious!Keep your eye on the USDA's latest crop condition ratings, most suspect soybeans to stay at our near the 73% "Good-to-Excellent" rating reported last week, the highest in the past 20-years. CLICK HERE for my daily report...
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