The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybean traders are focused on South American weather and the possibility of Chinese "cancelations." With parts of Argentina and southern Brazil looking as if they will remain hot and with limited rainfall during the next 6-10 days, the bears might start to get a little nervous. Yes, there is still a fear that China, at any moment, could step in and cancel 2-3 million metric tons of US soybeans, but with global supplies currently so tight, "weather" and the thought of any possible production problem will trump ALL other headlines. With this in mind I suspect our final two "old-crop" cash-sale targets at $13.55 and $13.72 may actually end up getting triggered during the next couple of weeks. As for "new-crop," I continue to believe the smartest play for producers is to keep hedges and floors in place, at least until Federal crop insurance prices are established at the end of February. Once we have our insurance floor established we may then want to consider lifting...Click here for my daily grain comments.....
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