Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Outside Markets Take Center Stage?
Sep 23, 2013
Political gridlock here in the US may soon threaten both the economy and the markets. Macro traders are asking, Can the government avoid a shutdown? and will there be a "default" of some type if the debt ceiling isn't raised?
Keep in mind Congress hasn't passed a budget in the past 4-years. We are simply running on what they like to call "continuing resolutions," which simply extend their authority to do whatever. So we are not looking for a so called "balanced budget" but rather another "continuing resolution" to avoid a shutdown by Oct. 1st (next week). If you remember, the Clinton/Gingrich era had a similar type "shutdown." It's certainly not the end of the world, like many talking heads are playing it up for the ratings, but it could cause some nearby nervousness. In fact some very smart think-tank types are now predict a one-wek US government shutdown. The Republicans (primarily Tea Party wing) seem content on NOT giving Obama and crew a higher credit-limit without some concessions or reduction of funding for ObamaCare.
Economic data scheduled to be released this week will be heavy. Last week the trade was excited by three main events: The announcement that Larry Summers had pulled his name from the hat of Fed Chair hopefuls; The announcement by the US Fed that they were leaving monetary policy "unchanged," viewed by many to be increasingly more dovish; Existing Home Sales were once again well above analyst expectations, showing continuing strength in the US housing market. This week might not be as rosy however with Consumer Confidence, Personal Income & Spending, Inflationary data and more US Housing numbers on top of a potential government shutdown. I suspect "IF" an announcement is made that Janet Yellen has been appointed the next Fed Chair and the powers that be in Washington can somehow avoid another near-miss, then we have a chance to see NEW all-time highs in the US stock market. If neither of those two events come to fruition, we will continue to give up ground on more uncertainty. Find out how it will effect the grain markets in my daily newswire, CLICK HERE, for the Van Trump report.