Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Preparing Yourself For The USDA Report
Jun 28, 2011
I wanted to pass along a few of the more basic numbers that the trade is looking for going into Thursday's big USDA report. This is not a complete guide, but it should certainly help give you some direction as to what most of the traders will be looking at and what numbers they are expecting.
Total Planted Corn Acres - I get the strange feeling there are now several jumping into the camp that acres will be left unchanged or bumped just a hair higher. There are several average trade guessed floating around. Some are a little higher at around 90.75 and some are a little lower at around 90.65 million acres. If you remember back last month, the USDA lowered it down to 90.70 million acres. With this being said you would have to believe a jump or a drop of 500,000 acres could be seen in either direction. Put it this way, there are definitely guys on both sides of the fence. Some of the lowest estimates I have personally seen thrown out were at 89.5 million acres. Remember, last year we were at 88.192 million acres planted. The highest I have heard is a jump back to 91.5 million acres by the boys over at Iowa Grain. As you can see there is a big difference of opinion. In this case two very respected sources are 2 million acres apart, truly anything is possible.
- Quarterly Corn Stocks - Most are thinking this number will be reported right around the 3.3 billion. Last year for this report, we were at 4.321. The range of guesses is running from a low of around 2.99 to a high of just over 3.5.
Soybean Planted Acres - This one here is equally as tricky as you have two camps of thought. One adamantly predicting more bean acres (because of poor corn planting conditions), and one predicting a significant cut in bean acres (because of the lop-sided profitability in planting corn acres). Last month the USDA reported soybean acres would total 76.609, this month the average trade guess has been lowered closer to 76.509. Bottom-line: the trade is looking for an ever-so-slight reduction in total bean acres. The highest bean acreage estimate I have seen has about 77.2 million, the lowest I have seen was about 75.5 million acres. Once again, close to a 2 million acre difference of opinion.
- Quarterly Soybean Stocks - Last month we were reported at 571 million. This month the trade is looking for something just a little less than 600 million. The range of guesses is somewhere between 475 and 675 million.
* For the rest of the story on Wheat and to know my thoughts on what Managed Money and the Funds will be watching for and how it will impact prices, make sure you sign up for my FREE report a couple days ahead of time so that you can catch the lead up to the big report!
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