The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
There has to be another reason China is in buying US SRW wheat, when they have other cheaper alternatives to rebuild reserves. We might not know the answer for a while, but I promise eventually we will see where the bullet came from. I am also becoming more and more convinced that the US wheat crop is in worse shape than the market is currently trading. From what I am hearing, parts of Oklahoma spent over 40-hours in below freezing temps. Parts of Kansas spent close to 20-hours with temps in the teens. Lets also keep in mind Europe has low stockpiles of wheat and continues to export at a torrid pace; Australia's stock piles are low; Russia' stock piles are low; the world number one wheat buyer, Egypt's stockpiles are extremely low. Point is the air is right for a major explosion to the upside. I don't know if we will get the spark or lightning bolt that will start the fire, but I am telling you now, conditions are right for an "unforeseen" bullish move to higher ground. I advise being very cautious shorting this market in any type of major way, at least until current conditions clear. Why not be outright bullish then you ask? Find out more on the wheat market, get the daily Van Trump report by CLICKING HERE.
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