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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump,

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Quick Thoughts Ahead of the USDA report...

Jan 10, 2014

Quick Thoughts Ahead of the USDA Report: Many producers seem to be panicking as new-crop prices continue to tumble!  From my perspective many have been apprehensive to pull the trigger on 2014 sales or hedges, especially since the "do nothing" approach has paid so handsomely the past few years...

We like to believe "HOPE" is a strategy… it's just often not a very good one!

Below are my answers to a few of the more popular last minute questions that many readers have been asking.  Hope this gives you some additional insight: 

Which Market Is Making You The Most Nervous? Old-crop soybeans! I truly believe there is a bullish story in the mix, but if the analyst who are predicting a jump in stocks to around 200 million vs. the USDA's current estimate of 141 million are correct, and the funds who are teetering on the edge of throwing in the towel on their long positions decide to actually fold their hand, then its lights out for the front-end of the trade.  There is some talk out there that the USDA will NOT raise their exports, and could actually cut their domestic crush numbers and push the yield high enough to build a much more comfortable cushion in stocks.  I am not necessarily on the same page with this theory because I believe the USDA will in fact be raising exports to some extent and I do not see an excessive jump in production. But I do respect the analyst who believe we are heading much higher, so I am a little nervous. Net-net, Click here for all my daily comments.....

What About Corn?  There really isn't any reason or story pending that would prompt any big money to get all bulled up in regard to corn. Sure, you could see some type of short-covering rally or occasional blip on the radar screen. But with no real weather story in South America and talk that the Brazilian crop could be getting larger it is hard to envision an extended rally in the next 60-days, especially considering the fact we have to digest three USDA reports. Lets also not forget the US farmer loves to grow corn.  I am not going to argue the fact producers in several areas aren't going to plant more soybeans, because Click here for my daily report... 

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