Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Record Corn Crop?...Not So Fast
Jun 17, 2014
Corn bulls have little to cheer about as the USDA shows emergence slightly ahead of normal (97% emerged) and one of the best "early" corn crops in recent years with 76% of the crop now rated in "Good-to-Excellent" condition. From a specific state-by-state standpoint, the bulls remain focused on the setbacks in NE (due to storm and hail damage) and the setbacks in MN (due to the heavy rainfall totals). Just keep in mind though that conditions in most of the other key growing states actually improved, including both IA and IL.
I have to believe from this point forward though the crop will be much more hard pressed to advance or improve overall crop conditions. I can site year-after-year where conditions started out very favorable but between now and mid-July that started to slide precipitously.
One saving grace is the fact demand still seems to remain strong, the question though is for how much longer. You have to believe we will soon (Aug or Sept) start to lose ground to South America as the world's low-cost corn supplier.
After that there will be new competition coming online from Ukraine, Which certainly won't make winning export business any easier, In other words bullish US corn export headlines might soon be tougher to come by??
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