Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Should You Be Thinking About Making Some Cash Sales?
Aug 18, 2011
I have many producers asking me about when to make those last minute sales, as they need to make room for this year's crop. I know this may sound strange, but I really didn't like the way the market responded to the FSA data from earlier this week. If you have read my my report recently, I have been making the case that the trade seems to be getting tired as they are having a tougher time pushing this market up the hill. With this being said, and basis still remaining remarkably strong, I would suggest making your final "old crop" sales at this time.
Many of you may want to get with your advisors and discuss some type of "limited" risk re-ownership strategy to replace your old crop bushels that were in the bin, with bullish type positions on the board.
With the extreme volatility affecting the markets and grain prices, you need someone to help you position your operation to make wise cash sales and set-up proper hedges. Sign-up to receive my FREE Full report in which you will receive my personal cash sale recommendations as well as gain access to my full Marketing Strategy. Remember, the markets don't react to fundamental news like they use to, in the FULL report, I bring you the inside scoop on what the Big Money players (Hedge Funds/Managed Money) are watching and how to take advantage of it! Simply follow the link below. You can also click the button below to follow my Team and I on Twitter and get daily updates on what is happening in the grain and livestock markets.
As for the my thoughts on the recent setbacks in the struggling "Outside" markets, it seems the "Bears" really only have only one real strong suit, and that is the fact that both "end users" and "importers" seem unwilling and content on NOT chasing the current US grain and soy rallies. The problem is this could absolutely kill the basis as we move forward, so be prepared. This is also why I have been urging you to make your necessary sales. Most end users and importers seem as if they are going to "roll-the-bones" and patiently wait for traditional harvest pressures before they commit to new purchases. It simply seems to me that there are cheaper global alternatives available compared to US corn (Ukraine corn at a $25 discount), there are cheaper alternatives available on the market compared to US wheat (Russian and Ukraine wheat), and their are cheaper alternatives compared to US soy (South American soy). This could all change as we move forward, but currently at these extremes many "Bears" are already claiming we have began the rationing process, with the basis moving lower its tough to argue their point. The Sep vs Dec corn spread has collapsed by more than $0.60 cents in the past few weeks, and now there is some talk that the USDA may once again.....
I will also be getting selling another batch of my "new crop" corn as well. Remember, this is based on your "current" production forecast. For many of you who have some production setbacks, your previous sold level may now actually have be bumped up, so be cautious selling much more until you get a better handle on your actual production. To know where I am sold so far for old and new crop, subscribe to take my report, it has all the necessary information.