Sep 30, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Soybean Bulls Eye $15, Is This the Last Push Higher?

Apr 02, 2014

Soybeans bulls continue to rally behind the leadership of the meal market. Most are estimating the Brazil's soybean crop at about 70% harvested, with the Mato Grosso soy harvest closer to 90% complete.  Second crop soybean planting in Brazil is still being heavily debated, and depending on how big this second-crop actually is will ultimately determine Brazil's total soybean production.  I was somewhat surprised to see Informa come in and lower their Brazilian production estimate by 2 MMTs down to 86.75 million.  In any regard, I am hearing the Brazilian crop is somewhere between 86-89 million metric tons. As for Chinese demand, I continue to hear talk of poor crush margins, plentiful supplies and the need for more "cancelations." In fact, yesterday, several sources inside the trade were reporting that the Chinese have canceled another 60,000 metric tons of Brazilian beans. The problem is the "Bears" don't have the spotlight and nobody seems overly focused on the cancelation of Brazilian beans. As usual the trade is more keenly focused on the US market.  Where insanely tight old-crop supplies, and the possibility of weather complications are much more sexy stories. The bean bulls appear to still be in charge and $15.00 old-crop prices look to be their next target! CLICK HERE for my daily report....

First New-Crop Soybean Sale In Over 6-Months: FWIW, yesterday we made our first new-crop soybean sale since last last summer vs. the NOV14 contract. It feels like our patience certainly paid off, and I thought it was time to reward the recent rally with a cash sale. We now have 55% of our estimated production either sold or hedged. 

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