Oct 1, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Soybean Prices Struggle as Crop Grows....

Jul 29, 2014
We continue to see the bean market backpedal despite many still questioning the record USDA projected yields.  The overnight markets showed some follow through from Monday's rally, but quickly sold off as the trade discounted any weather premium that its tried to build into this market. The old-crop balance sheet tightness provided additional short term bullish sentiment in the market yesterday, but was it too little too late?  Will the US have early beans that will be harvested in the southern growing states?  From what we are hearing, the beans will be harvested early but where will they end up?   The beans appear to be all about weather right now, being to wet early, not enough moisture now, planted late, susceptible to an early frost or freeze and short term cooler temps, with no moisture, on the bullish side.  On the flip side, the bears continue to remind us that, with 85 million acres projected to be planted, if this is not a record crop it will be one of the biggest ever. Most have estimated yields to be between 44 bushels per acre, on the low side, to 48 bushels per acre on the high side.  Say we end up with harvested acres around 84.5 million acres, with these mentioned yields, your looking at a production in the neighborhood of 3.718 million bushels to 4.056 million bushels.  Anyway you slice it, we are talking a big bean crop, with a large carry, that will push these prices lower, unless demand spikes dramatically.   With the new crop beans trading near $11, do we you take more risk off the board, to insure a profitable sale?  I still see the old crop beans providing some support to prices, potentially trying to fill the gap in the chart in the $11.30 range, which would see the new crop trading in the $10.50 to $11.50 range through the month of August. CLICK HERE for my daily report..   
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