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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soy traders are digesting "The Good, The Bad & The Ugly..." The good news for the bulls was the fact US old-crop ending stocks were reduced to 150 million bushels (slightly below expectations) as the USDA raised exports by +25 million bushels and raised domestic crush by +5 million bushels and raised soymeal exports by 250,000 short tons. The bad news is the USDA raised our imports by 10 million bushels and pushed the Argentine crop higher by 1 million metric tons, they also raised our soybean oil ending stocks by 55 million pounds and cut their estimate for bio fuel usage by 400 million pounds. The ugly news is that Brazil's crop looks as if it will need to be raised higher by about 2-3 million metric tons and the Argentine soy crop might need to be bumped another 2-3 million metric tons higher as well. You can also throw into the mix talk of the US crop getting BIGGER by the end-of-year January USDA report (Jan 10th). Several respected sources are now talking about a possible one bushel per acre jump in the overall yield estimate. Even though I am still bullish old-crop soy prices, thinking the January contract has a little more room to the upside. I am also extremely respectful and cognizant of the fact we are getting dangerously close to the music coming to an end. The name of the game from here on out is NOT to be left with any bushels in your hand when the Chinese decide to throw down the "cancellation card." Remember, big bulls constantly need to be fed. I hate to say it, but Its getting harder and harder as each day passes to imagine a whole lot more "bullish news" being revealed in regard to old-crop soy. Moral of the story, if the bulls run out of old-crop headlines the entire bean complex could take several steps back. Producers need to keep your hedges in place as we begin our descent into the new-crop abyss. Click here for my daily report....
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