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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Corn market continues to suffer from a lack of "real" news and speculation over the "unknowns." Bulls are getting a little boost from the weather which is limiting grain movement to US ports, helping to support cash prices. There is also talk of drier conditions in Brazil posing a threat, but since they’re just starting their second-crop planting, it’s hard to imagine that will hold much weight. Thoughts are Argentine corn has suffered some damage from excessive heat earlier in the month, but as of yet, no one is "officially" lowering their production estimates. Corn bears definitely seem to have the upper-hand with several of the most important "unanswered" questions still looming. It will probably be March before China makes a decision on GMO corn imports and or until the trade has a better understanding in regard to the USDA's feed/residual estimate. Keep in mind the EPA has yet to hand down a decision on the RFS mandate, which many doubt will be bullish. While many are arguing that even if they don’t raise the blend requirement, ethanol production will barely be affected, my guess is until there is a final number to work from, fears over decreased demand on that front will persist. Bottom-line, there are still too many "unknowns" in the marketplace that could play out even more "negative" to warrant a significant rally. Producers should continue to expect the market to trade in a sideways channel between $4.05 and $4.55 for the next few weeks. Click Here for my daily report...
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