Jul 22, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Trade Expectations for USDA Report.....

Apr 09, 2014

Going into the USDA report, there are numerous balls in the air that could cause some extreme moves in the grain markets.  This is what we are keeping our eye on.

US Soybean Ending Stocks (old-crop) currently estimated at 145 million bushels and most expecting it to fall by 5 million bushels.  Exports currently estimated at 1.530 billion bushels. With 21 weeks left in the marketing year we have already exported about 1.518 billion bushels. The trade seems to be thinking the USDA will make another 25 to 30 million bushel increase.  Imports currently estimated at 35 million bushels. Trade thinking we could see a 10-15 million bushel increase to 50 million. Ultimately this number could push to levels north of 70 million.   Crush currently estimated at 1.69 billion. Trade thinking we could see a 5-10 million bushel reduction in crush.   CLICK HERE for my daily report.....

South American Soybean Production                                                    

Brazil currently estimated at 88.5 MMTs. Most in the trade seem to be looking for the USDA to reduce their estimate by 500,000 to 1 million metric tons.Argentina currently estimated at 54.0 MMTs. Most in the trade thinking the Argentine croup will remain "unchanged" for the time being. Still only 10-15% harvested.

US Corn Ending Stocks 1.456 billion, trade seems to be in agreement that corn ending stocks will fall by 50 million bushels. I am nervous about this confidence and believe the real concern is if the USDA surprises the trade with a slightly higher ending stocks number. In other words catching everybody leaning over the wrong side of the boat.  Exports currently estimated at 1.625 billion bushels trade thinking we could bump higher by another 25 million bushels.  Ethanol usage currently estimated at 5.0 billion bushel ... trade thinking we could bump higher by 25 million bushels.  Feed/Residual currently estimated at 5.3 billion bushels. Even though the Quarterly Stocks report painted a somewhat bullish picture and has some thinking the USDA could actually raise this estimate, don't think for a moment the USDA couldn't readjust this number lower.  this is still a huge wild-crad in my opinion and certainly one that could go either way.  CLICK HERE for my daily report....

South American Corn Production  Brazil currently estimated at 70.0 MMTs.  Trade not looking for much of a change. Still a lot of unknowns in association with the second-crop.  Argentina currently estimated at 24.0 MMTs.  Not much of an adjustment or change thought to be coming down the pipe. 

US Wheat Ending Stocks currently estimated at 558 million bushels. The trade seems to be thinking as the USDA raises their HRW stocks it will ultimately push total wheat ending stocks higher. Would be surprised to see a 20-30 million bushels jump.           CLICK HERE for my daily report....

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