Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Uncertainty in crop conditions continues to linger...
Jun 18, 2013
Corn bulls may be excited to hear that some big yielding acres in both IA and MN are still "unplanted." Several sources in the industry thinking some 850,000 plus corn acres in IA and some 540,000 acres in MN are still "unplanted." Trade also looking at the fact 16% of the IA corn crop is already reported in "Poor-to-Very Poor" condition (CO 16%; IL & TX 11%; MO 10%; KS 8%). Also keep in mind, as of this past Sunday, there were still more than 5.5 million corn acres not yet "emerged" in parts of IA, IL, MN, ND, and WI . Moral of the story, lots of early "uncertainty" in new-crop corn still gives the bulls something to cheer about despite bearish balance sheet projections and improving overall "crop conditions" in several states.
As for the nearby JUL13 contract, which has gained close to $0.30 cents on the SEP13 contract in just the past 10-tading sessions, may continue to gain steam as export inspections came in stronger than anticipated. Keep in mind "First Notice Day" for the JUL13 corn contract is June 28th (same day as the big USDA Quarterly Stocks report), while "Last Trading Day" is set for July 12th. Many traders pointing out the fact the MAR13 contract went off the board at around $7.40, the MAY13 contract went off the board at around $7.20...trend crowd seems to be looking for JUL13 contract to go off the board around $7.00. Personally I am a little concerned, since I am hearing stories that spot basis bids in some areas are starting to fall. Actually there are reports of some end-users already rolling bids to Sept and NOT offering anywhere close to the recent premium associated with the July contract??? As I continue to preach, be careful holding these old-crop bushels for too long. If nothing else try and get that big basis premium locked up. Click here to receive my daily report and I will send it directly to your email each day. Thanks