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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump,

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

USDA Ag Outlook Forecast This Week...

Feb 18, 2014

USDA’s Annual Ag Outlook meeting kick's off later this week (Thurs/Fri) and all eyes will be on planted acreage and early yield estimates for 2014. There is no question the trade is concerned about "Total Production" estimates and just how high 2014/15 ending stocks could push. Below are few thoughts on what the trade is anticipating and the recent buzz: Click here for my daily report....


  • Planted Corn Acres: Most sources seem to be looking for number between 92 and 94 million acres. The thing to remember is even though last year we planted 95.4 million acres, a large chunk of ground in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, that is certainly always considered corn acres, went "unplanted."  Those acres will be back in play this season along with the other ground that made up over 9 million acres of "Preventive Plant" last year.  Lets also not forget the......  Click here for my daily report....
  • Corn Yield: Depending on who and what you want to follow, most sources are projecting the USDA starts off with a yield between 165-166 bushels per acre. The kicker here is the fact the best average yield ever recorded in US history came back in 2009 at 165.2 bushels per acre.  Since then the US average corn yield has struggled to post anything higher: 2010=152.8 bpa; 2011=147.2 bpa; 2012=123.4 boa; 2013=158.8 bpa.  
  • Total Corn Production: Will total US corn production end up higher than the 14.26 billion bushel estimate thrown out in the baseline projections?  Will 2014/15 ending stocks end up at the 2.6 billion bushel estimate?
  • Planted Soybean Acres: Most are thinking the soybean acres come in much higher than the recent USDA 10-year baseline numbers, somewhere between 80-81 million acres planted vs. the 76.5 million planted last year.                           Click here for my daily report..... 
  • Soybean Yield: Most sources thinking the USDA will start off around 44.5 bushels per acre vs. the 43.3 bushel average harvested last year. 
  • Total Soybean Production: Will total soybean production end up higher than 3.5 billion bushels projected in the baseline report? How about ending stocks, will they push higher than the 202 million bushel baseline estimate? You would certainly have to think so especially after USDAs top Ag economist Joseph Glauber said late last week that.... Click here for my daily report....
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