Sep 30, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump,

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

USDA Total Acreage Number Has Many Scratching Their Head...

Jul 01, 2014

USDA Report stuns the market by reporting "Total All-Crop" planted acres at almost  328 million, up an unbelievable 5.7 million acres from last year and the highest "total" acreage number since 1997.  This has many in the trade scratching their head as lower prices generally tend to decrease total planted acreage. 

Corn falls to NEW contract lows as the USDA shocks the trade by showing more old-crop supplies. In fact about 140 million bushels more than most had expected and an estimated 39% more than June of 2013.  The acreage number was bumped a bit lower from 91.7 million down to 91.641 million, the lowest corn planted acreage number since 2010, but still the fifth largest corn crop ever. Bottom-line no real surprise in acreage. Below are a few additional thoughts:  CLICK HERE for my daily report...
  • Harvested acres were lowered down to 83.839 million.  If these numbers hold true a national yield of 167 or higher produces a crop in excess of 14 billion bushels.  
  • Feed usage fro corn is looking more and more like it was well overstated.  The current 5.3 billion estimate is obviously too high and reductions in the coming reports will be in order perhaps 50-150 million bushels.   
  • Old-Crop Ending Stocks could be well understated and a 1.3 to 1.5 billion number is starting to feel more realistic.  
  • New-Crop Ending Stocks could now easily end up being well north of 2.0 billion bushels. Take a bit off of export demand, a portion away from feed usage and more old-crop supplies available being to carry forward and we are looking at glut of corn supplies to chew through in the months ahead.  
  • Global Supplies Skyrocketing - With China supposedly looking at another record crop and huge production coming out of the Black Sea region, South America and the EU, all it will take is a record US crop (which looks like it could be the case) to provide icing on the cake.  Unless we see a significant weather event that rocks the US crop I'm afraid we could continue to grind lower.                CLICK HERE for my daily report...
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