Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
What Questions Should Producers and End Users Be Asking?
Oct 13, 2011
In typical fashion, the USDA yesterday gave bullish news by reducing the US corn crop, but took it right back by raising the global stockpiles. I am of the belief right now that you can rearrange these cards and make them work if you are either a bear or bull, it just depends on what set of glasses you have on when you are looking at the data. As many of you know, I primarily deal with producers, end users and long-term investors, and I continue to like the long-term growth potential in the agricultural markets and view substantial breaks as buying opportunities for the end users and times to hunker down and take advantage of your storage for the producers. I am fairly certain the sun will shine again on these markets; the larger players simply need some time to readjust their positions and take it all in...be patient and continue to wait a little further break to be a buyer. If you are a producer and you are looking for some help on the marketing side of your operation, feel free to take my free report. We have some terrific cash sales on the books and good hedges currently in place.
So what do producers and end users need to be watching right now? With the USDA keeping corn yields the same and lowering bean yields, some are asking, Are yields ultimately headed lower? Many are worried about supply and asking, Will US farmers plant even more corn next year? I am even hearing rumors that South America will plant several thousand more acres of corn. How will Ukraine lifting its export tariffs and taxes ultimately affect corn prices? In terms of weather, are we in for another La Niña weather pattern? If so, will this mean continued dryness for the South or bring spring flooding again in the upper and eastern Midwest? What’s the long-term outlook for ethanol production and livestock demand? Will they remain strong? One of the greatest worries currently is the thought of China slowing down. Many are questioning whether China’s demand will slow and what that will look like for corn and soybean imports.
If you would like some help with answers to some of these questions, I have many more details and numbers that are included in the daily "Farm Direction" report, so make sure you are getting your copy each day. Thanks again and best of luck. You can sign up online by clicking HERE or you can call the office if you have any questions or need to get signed up: 816-322-5300.