Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
What the Macros Are Telling Us This Morning
Nov 02, 2012
US monthly employment numbers will be the driving force this morning as it gives us our final look at the US employment picture prior to Americans going to the polls on Tuesday and casting their votes. The trade is looking for the controversial report to show "payrolls" increased in October by 125,000. You need to also keep your eye on the "revisions," as there was some talk circulating that an entire state failed to report some of their numbers last month, conveniently ahead of the presidential debate. Some actually speculating that after the election is behind us, the employment numbers will have to digest some possibly extreme revisions. As I am sure you are aware, most political analysts seem to be in agreement that this election is going to go down to the wire. This obviously sets the stage for what looks to be an extremely volatile week in the "outside" macro markets. "IF" a new leader is elected there is speculation, the US dollar could strengthen, the US stock market could push higher and in return equity could flow out of the commodity markets and push more aggressively into US stocks. An Obama victory could therefore cause just the opposite type reaction, disappointment from the US stock market, thoughts of increasing debt and a therefore a weaker US dollar. I have to imagine the investment world will be holding its breath until after the final US presidential election results are announced. Keep in mind, the "China National Congress" starts that Thursday (Nov 8th). Even though most of the new leaders are already known, any type of surprise could certainly prompt money-managers around the globe to recalculate just how quickly any type of new stimulus or economic reform measures might be introduced. Moral of the story, any time you have leadership changes amongst the two most powerful economies in the world during the same week, investors are going to be extremely nervous. On a more minor note, and later in the week, we will also hear the latest interest rate decisions from the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB).
FC Stone numbers were released after the close yesterday showing a slight bump in US corn yield to 124 bushels an acre, up from their previous estimate at 123.9. Soybean yields were estimated at 39.1 bushels an acre vs. the last estimate at 38.2 bushels. Basically "neutral" corn and just slightly "negative" soybeans....Don't forget, weekly export sales data should be released this morning around 7:30am CST. Most traders are thinking corn exports will come in between 100,000 - 350,000; wheat should be somewhere between 350,000 - 550,000; soybean exports should be between 500,000 - 700,000 metric tons. Also Informa is scheduled to release their latest round of estimates today at 10:30am CST.
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