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RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

What to expect from the USDA Friday morning...

Nov 06, 2013

USDA prepares to give us two reports for the price of one Friday. Remember, this is the first time in history the USDA has actually skipped an entire report. This is a long time to go without out an update so expect some potential surprises. Below are a few interesting facts to consider: 

 

  • Corn production estimates for the 2013 crop have ranged from a low of 13.76 billion bushels back in Aug to a high of 14.14 billion back in May. 
    • Yield thought to be moving higher from a 155.3 in the Sept report up to around 159 in the upcoming Nov report. 
    • Harvested acres thought to be moving lower from 89.1 million down closer to 88 million acres. 
    • Average ending stock estimates for corn pushing higher to 2.029 billion bushels vs. the previous USDA estimate of 1.855 billion bushels.  World ending stocks also thought to be pushing higher, 151.42 in Sept up to 154.21 in the upcoming report.    
  • Soybean production estimates for the 2013 crop have ranged from a low of 3.15 billion bushels back in Sept to a high of 3.42 billion back in July.
    • Yield thought to be moving higher from a 41.2 bushels in the Sept report up to around 42.3 bushels in the upcoming Nov report. 
    • Harvested acres thought to be moving lower from 76.3 million down to  around 75.9 million acres.
    • Average ending stock estimates for soybeans pushing higher to 172 million bushels vs. the previous USDA estimate of 150 million bushels. World ending stocks also thought to be pushing higher, 71.54 in Sept up to 72.28 in the upcoming report.    
  • Wheat average ending stock estimates thought to be moving lower to 519 million bushels vs. the previous USDA estimate of 561 million bushels. World ending stocks thought to be moving lower, 176.28 in Sept down to 175.88 in the upcoming report.    
  • November USDA reports are generally thought to be extremely accurate, generally within 1-2% of the USDA's final total. Pay close attention to Friday's numbers as they will clearly set the tone for the remainder of the race! 

 

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Don't miss my break down of the USDA WASDE report Friday morning..it should be a wild ride!

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