The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Technical traders continue to keep an eye on the DEC13 corn contract lows at $4.45^6. I personally believe producers who can still capture big basis premiums for delivering corn this week, should take full-advatage! Thoughts are you limit your downside risk by selling the cash and look to re-own on paper once you believe the harvest lows are in place. Soybean producers should continue to keep hedges or floors in place as well, with an objective of pricing as many $13.00 plus beans as you can directly out of the field. Essentially only keeping back the number of beans you are comfortable gambling with. With the Iowa crop now showing improvements in both corn and soybean conditions it seems hard to imagine a major reduction in US yields. Without any major weather concerns on the horizon, I continue to believe in "selling the rallies." With DEC13 wheat once again trading at a $2.00 plus premium to DEC13 corn, we may start to see more longer-term fund interest being "long corn vs. short wheat." Spec's may want to put this on their radar screen, as a move to the $2.30-$2.50 range may warrant serious consideration.
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