The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Wheat export sales (better than expected) and continued talk that China is in buying US SRW wheat seems to be disappointing many of the longer-term bears. Thoughts are "short covering" this week has also helped fuel the recent rally. As of right now new-crop export commitments are running well ahead of last year’s pace, but I am still deeply concerned about how competitive we can be beyond July. Most wheat insiders believe there is simply no way we can compete with cheap Black Sea supplies once their harvest is complete and bushels are moved to the ports. Several sources thinking it will take sub-$6.00 wheat to stay anywhere close to competitive? Will the US crop get the much needed moisture it needs or will we stay dry, as the extended forecast indicates? For my full report, with more detailed information, click below, I will send it out each morning.
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