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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump,

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Where are Corn Prices Headed this Week?

Feb 10, 2014

Corn traders will be focused on the following this week: 

  • US Ending Stocks - Will the USDA tighten current supplies?  Most sources believe yes, but perhaps not enough to discourage the longer-term bears and fuel a continuation of the recent rally. 
  • Exports - Considering the current pace of US exports it seem obvious that the USDA will need to raise exports.  The question is by how much???  Several good sources thinking between 50 and 100 million bushel increase to exports. 
  • Ethanol - Several sources including myself believe the corn used for ethanol needs to be moved higher, perhaps closer to 5.1 billion bushels vs. the current 5.0 billion estimate. I suspect, considering the recent wintery weather and slight setbacks in production at the plants the USDA can afford to wait to hike their estimate. Just not looking for much of a change here. 
  • Feed/Residual - Though most sources doubting any change will be made to the feed/residual numbers in this report, many traders are still thinking the USDA has grossly overestimated this number and a bearish adjustment could be dealt during one of the next couple of quarterly stock reports. Click here for my daily report.....
  • South American Production - Will the USDA lower their Argentine corn estimate like many sources in the trade are anticipating. Will they push their Brazilian corn production estimate higher like some sources have proposed? My bet is ....Get all my comments here...    
  • Chinese Demand - We continue to hear talk of the Chinese refusing US corn shipments.  USDA, in the last report lowered Chinese corn imports down from 7 MMTs down to 5 MMTs.  Several analyst wondering if that is still too optimistic, especially considering reports of a record Chinese crop and lower industrial use.  
  • US Acreage Battle - With the USDA "Ag Outlook" scheduled for Feb 21st, the trade remains nervous that US planted corn acres could remain above 90 million acres.  In fact several very reputable sources are ...Click Here for my daily report....  
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