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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybeans backpedals to their lowest levels since mid-Nov on fears that Chinese demand may be slowing into the Lunar New Year holiday and that more ample rainfall has moved over a large portion of South America. Technical bulls are hoping the MAR14 contract can stay above support at the $12.56 level or a downward push to $12.33 could quickly ensue. We need to realize this break is happening with no major Chinese soy cancellations as of yet and the USDA announcing even more sales (115,000 metric tons announced yesterday to China and a sale of 350,000 metric tons the day before). As for the new-crop NOV14 contract, producers are hoping the market can simply hold its head above the $11.00 area, which looks to be extremely difficult from my perspective. Keep in mind, in just 10-short trading sessions, since positing an $11.74 intraday high on Dec. 23rd, the new-crop NOV14 bean contract has fallen off a cliff. You can't accuse anyone or say there hasn't been ample warning that soy prices could all of a sudden drastically tumble. We have known for months, that IF the the weather cooperated, South America was going to harvest a mammoth new record crop. With that domino now tumbling (as record yields are being reported in early harvested fields of Mato Grosso) the trade is now left wondering if the US is going to follow suit with record bean acres and potentially back-to-back record crops from the worlds top producers? We maintain our current position and are keeping both old and new-crop floors in place. Click here to get my daily report...Thank You
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