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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
USDA weekly crop progress and condition report showed planting at near record slow pace and wheat conditions continuing to deteriorate. Corn planting now the second slowest in the last 34 years (lowest since 1984's 10% planted), Regardless of the delays you have to believe the corn planters will continue to roll until at least Memorial Day for most producers. The question now becomes how much yield drag the USDA will factor in from their early estimate of 163.6 bushels per acre. Remember, the USDA generally doesn't make a lot of new-crop production adjustments in the May report. A slight adjustment to yields has been known to occur, but rarely do they adjust planted acreage. Point is even with record slow planting, a 2-3 bushel reduction in yield still puts the crop close to 14.5 billion bushels. In addition the trade also seems to be thinking the USDA's current "demand" estimate for new-crop corn is overly optimistic, meaning ending stocks could still end up over 2.0 billion bushels, so click here now to get my full report.
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