Current Marketing Thoughts
Kevin Van Trump
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Will MIR-162 Miraculously Find Approval?
Jul 23, 2014
Corn harvest rolling in Texas and several independent Crop Tours taking place across the US belt reporting some of the best looking corn seen in years (many fields reporting +200 bushel yields). In return prices fall to levels not seen since July of 2010. The problem is I'm afraid we may soon be testing the Sept 2009 lows at around $3.00 per bushel, especially if the bull's can't soon find a way to stop the current bleeding at or above the $3.50 level. If there is any bullish hope out there right now it's coming from more talk amongst producers in parts of the Western corn belt, and producers in parts of Iowa who are saying the corn and soybean crops might not be nearly as good as "advertised." Several areas in the top-producing state and some areas out West are reporting less than ideal rainfall as of late and possibly limited moisture in the days ahead. The bears are quick to diffuse this potential bullish bomb by talking about the extremely cool temps. In other words, the cooler than normal temps are trumping the talk of limited rainfall right now. We are certainly going to keep a close eye on the situation and will continue to stay in close contact with producers all across the Midwest, in regard to any sign of moisture deficits. The other bit of "potential" bullish news is the fact US prices are trending lower and Chinese prices are trending higher. There is some speculation starting to arise that as import margins into China approach EXTREMELY profitable levels, MIR-162 might soon miraculously find approval...obviously if this were announced the corn market would at least post some type of knee-jerk reaction higher. CLICK HERE for my daily report...
Comparing Current Conditions To Years Past: The USDA recently released their rendition of "crop-condition" art. As you can see the 2014 corn crop conditions are running well ahead of the conditions seen during the record setting 2009 crop year, but slightly below the conditions from the record setting 2004 crop year. Bottom-line, this years corn crop conditions are some of the highest we have seen in the past 20-years. Yes, we are still a long ways from the finish line, but we are certainly past the halfway point and running at a potential record setting pace. Sorry for pointing out the obvious, I just wanted to give you another way to view the data.
Taking A Look At Growing Degree Days: There has been some talk amongst producers that with the cool temps the growing degree days are are running well behind. The graphic below was released yesterday by the USDA and NOAA. From what I can tell, states like NE, KS, KY, TN, IL, IN, OH, and most of IA, MO, WI and MI are looking good. Yes, MN, AR and most the Dakota's are running a bit behind. Net-net nothing real bullish to speak about.CLICK HERE for my daily report.