Sep 19, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump,

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Will the Bulls Have Their Say in Corn Acres?

Jun 30, 2014

Corn traders are looking for "total planted corn acres" to dominate the trade today. There is no real "story" in old-crop so most of the attention is on new-crop supplies.  I suspect moving forward in the next few weeks it's going to be all about total US acres (how many have now been lost due to flooding), weather (is more rain expected) and the recent policy changes and dynamic shifts associated with Chinese corn demand???  CLICK HERE for my daily report....

  • Acreage - The trade seem to be looking for a few more acres than the USDA projected back in March (91.691 million).  A 93 million acre number would be viewed as bearish by the trade especially considering the good rainfall totals and near normal temps we have been experiencing.  A number sub-91.5 million would be viewed as bullish by the trade. In fact a number sub-90 million, which a few sources have now estimated, would be viewed as wildly bullish. My thoughts are if the number comes out bearish (say 92 million) most of the trade is going to immediately dispute the number saying that the recent storms and flooding in many locations has drastically reduced this number from when the survey data was originally compiled back in early-June. On the flip-side if the acreage numbers come out unchanged or perhaps even a bit lower than the March survey the bulls will win once again by saying the numbers are now even lower.   My point is I have a hard time seeing the bears winning this category unless the USDA comes out with a 93 million plus total acreage number. 
  • Ending Stocks - The standard debates between the bears and the bulls continue in regard to total exports, feed and ethanol usage. My guess is for not a lot of change.  I doubt they make the huge adjustment to "feed usage" like the bears are hoping to see and I doubt there is any real change in exports or ethanol.  CLICK HERE for my daily report.....
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