Crop Progress Neutral
Jun 24, 2013
Grains were sharply lower while the old crop soy complex was strong. December corn closed 9 ¾ cents lower at $5.46 ½, September wheat down 17 ¼ at $6.87 ¾, and November soybeans unchanged at $12.73 ½. A favorable forecast and weak outside markets resulted in a sharp decline overnight but the tightness of nearby soybeans was enough to support the entire oilseed market.
After the market closed the USDA released their Weekly Crop Progress Report. Corn ratings jumped another percentage point and are now 65% good-excellent. It was at this time last year when we started to see a decline in ratings from the heat. On this week last year corn ratings were 56% good-excellent. Corn is 96% emerged compared to 99% on average.
Soybeans were 92% planted compared to 95% on average. This is at the low end of expectations but not necessarily friendly for price action. Soybean condition ratings were up 1% to 65% good-excellent with 81% emergence.
Winter wheat is 20% harvested compared to 37% on average. Conditions were up 1% from last week but are still only at 32% good-excellent. Spring wheat ratings jumped 2% and are now 70% good-excellent!
Overall the crop progress report was neutral in our opinion but that is significant in the fact that there is no news to "feed the bulls". Without a story to keep the investment money flowing, the risk premium built into the market may slowly subside. We don’t expect too much of a move this week as traders await the June 28th reports. The USDA will release acres and June stocks and will be a major source for market direction.
The average acreage guesses are in from the Reuters poll. They are pegging corn acreage at 95.313, soybeans at 77.933, and all wheat at 55.902. In the Dow Jones poll, the average quarterly stocks are guessed at 2.856 billion bushels of corn, 441 million bushels of soybeans, and 750 million bushels of wheat. The report will be released at 11:00am, Friday, June 28th.
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