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EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 1-30-2012
Jan 30, 2012
Overall it was a "bearish" trading session with soybeans having the largest drop. March beans fell 33 ¾ cents to $11.85 ¼. March corn fell 10 cents to $6.31 ¾ and March wheat was only down 2 ½ cents at $6.44 ¾.
Overall the weather forecast for South America has more favorable rains expected for the next two weeks. Southern Brazil is still expecting net drying this week but next week they have adequate rains forecasted.
Wheat has once again gained on corn and is now trading at 13 cent premium to corn. This is significant since it has been trading in and out of a discount to corn since June which has surely affected the amount of corn being fed in the world. If wheat is no longer cheap enough to be a feed substitute the corn market may have to rally to ration demand. Much of this depends on the South American crop as the market has already priced in a high risk premium for crop damage. Obviously there has been some damage from the heat stress; the question still remains how much.
Tomorrow is the last day of the month and could be choppy. We like the current EHedger recommendations which allow for much price fluctuation while still protecting a lot of your downside price risk. Please signup using the link below if you would like a free email trial of our research.
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