EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11/26/12
Nov 26, 2012
CBOT markets closed modestly higher to start the week. December corn was up 1 ¾ cents at $7.47 ¼, January soybeans up 6 cents at $14.24 ¾, and December wheat up 1 ¼ at $8.49.
The morning session was strong especially after the USDA announced another sale of 20,000 MTs of US soybean oil to "unknown". Grains lost much of their early gains as the day progressed on the lack of strength in the outside markets as well as lackluster Export Inspections report. The market was estimating 60-70 million bushels for export and the actual was 45.49. Wheat missed expectations at 7.83 million bushels but corn came in line with estimates at 15.92 million.
Kansas City Wheat was strong for most of the day largely due to weather concerns. Winter wheat has had the lowest crop rating during the month of November for the past 3 weeks in a row. Today the good-excellent rating fell another point and is now at 33%!
December KC Wheat
Southern Brazil is still dry but added some precipitation on the midday forecast for this weekend. Argentina still looks too wet in the 7 day model but may have some drier conditions in the 7-14 day period. Hard Red Wheat country is still looking at overall dry conditions for the next 14 days which may provide support especially after another decline in crop ratings.
We will continue to watch the 8am USDA sale announcements and Thursday export sales reports for direction, especially for soybeans. Domestic fundamental news will likely be slow for the next 45 days and may keep prices wandering with the outside markets. If you would like to receive our expanded commentary including hedge recommendations, morning highlights, and/or morning automated call please sign up using the link below.
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