EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 4/26/12
Apr 26, 2012
Grains finished mixed with heavy "bullspreading" in corn, wheat, and soybeans. The May – July corn spread gained 6 ½ cents today settling at +16 ½. First notice for May corn will be on Monday and this spread is likely going to have some big swings next week. July corn settled 6 ½ cents higher at $6.07 ½ and December corn actually finished 3 cents lower at $5.35. July soybeans closed 4 ¼ cents higher at $14.80 ¼ and November closed 11 ¾ cents lower at $13.58 ¾. This is a new settlement high for the July – Nov soybean spread and a new settlement high for July soybeans. July wheat finished up 9 cents at a price of $6.35 ½.
The spread volatility continues! Today’s strong old crop sales helped keep old crop supported despite being sharply lower for much of the morning session. Weekly sales for 11/12 soybeans were 926,200 MTs which is a very large sales number for the end of April. Most of the export business should be flowing to South America at this time of year. Still this was somewhat anticipated by the market as we rallied the spreads sharply over the past 5 trading sessions. Old crop corn sales were 645,600 MTs and 11/12 meal sales were 221,100 MTs. Both of these numbers were strong. There were also rumors of more corn and soybeans sold to china today which helped the spreads as well.
The bottom line is the recent demand influx is holding corn at current prices and pushing soybeans higher. We know the funds are loaded up with record soybean long positions at the moment, can they continue to purchase at these levels? New crop corn continues to get battered by hedge pressure and long liquidation. Tomorrow is Friday and Monday is the last day of the month as well as first notice for May futures. Look for a lot of volatility through this timeframe. To receive a free trial of the EHedger research including hedge recommendations, please sign up using the link below. Thanks and have a great weekend!
Chart: November Soybeans
Chart: December Corn
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