EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 8-16-2011
Aug 16, 2011
Coming in from the overnight session grains were called weaker on the open. Gradually they made their way higher to finish the day stronger and make new settlement highs for December corn. December corn was up 7 ½ at $7.27 ½, November soybeans down 1 ¾ at $13.49 ½, and December wheat finished up 10 ½ at $7.52.
Yesterday’s crop progress report was left mostly unchanged for crop ratings and had a slightly bearish affect during the night session. The surprising market news was Nass’s decision to release the FSA planted, failed, and prevented acres for all crops. The report was considered "bullish" to corn and wheat specifically. Soybeans lagged behind for the majority of the day and finished lower.
The FSA numbers are still not complete yet since all the Counties have not reported just yet. From the numbers we have so far many analysts are thinking that we could see up to a 500,000 acre cut in corn, 100-200,000 acre cut in soybeans, 500-600,000 acre cut in wheat, and up to 800,000 acre increase in cotton.
This is the first year they have done it like this and it will be updated each month. Since all Counties haven’t reported yet there are still a lot of unknowns, but these are the preliminary numbers. Either way the yield is still a much larger factor. The acre question doesn’t seem to want to go away. We can fine tune the acres all we want, but the changes will not likely be very significant for corn/beans and yield is still going to be at the forefront of the supply concerns. To put it in bushel perspective this equated to about 80 million bushels of corn.
If you have any questions please contact EHedger. Have a great week!
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